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Are older drivers different in the US and Italy?
G. Fancello1, N. Stamatiadis2, E. Pani-Wilkinson3 & P. Fadda1
1
Cagliari University, Italy
Kentucky University, USA
3
American Consulting Engineers, USA
2
Abstract
The behavior of older drivers has been receiving increasing attention over the
last few years in the safety community. Large numbers of over 65 year-olds
continue to drive into their old age mainly because of the advances in medicine
and a longer active working life. This paper aims to examine the potential driver
behavior differences between two samples of older drivers from two countries
(Italy and USA) with very different driving habits, driving regulations and road
infrastructure conditions. In particular, we examined four maneuvers (merging
from a ramp, changing lanes, turning left and night driving) for which
interviewees were asked to describe how they would react. The data gathered
were analyzed using multidimensional techniques that enabled to identify groups
having homogeneous behavior in each sample. The findings indicate that drivers
of the same age exhibit different driving habits and in different driving
environments react differently and are thus confronted with different situations
in terms of safety. This demonstrates that, generally speaking, the older drivers
in US and Italy are similar but they have a different perspective of risk that
varies depending on several factors including medical conditions, driving habits,
driving conditions.
Keywords: older drivers, traffic safety, crashes.
1
Introduction
The behavior of over 65 year old drivers has become a major focus area of safety
research in the past few years. Increased life expectancy, progress in medicine,
provision of more work and non-work services for broad segments of the
population have all led to a percentage and absolute increase in the number of
active elderly. This has also a direct impact on their mobility needs. Nowadays
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680 Urban Transport XIV
we frequently call third age those 65 to 75-80 year olds who are still active and
self sufficient and fourth age the over 80’s who instead tend to spend less time
outside the home.
Italian statistics (ISTAT) show that in 2001, the number of over 65-year olds
in Italy accounted for 18.7% of the population as a whole, increasing to 23%
calculated on an over-18 basis. The percentages are similar in the US, where the
figure for over 65 year olds is predicted to rise to 20% of the population between
2020 and 2030. The issue with these population increases is that elderly prefer
their own car to fulfill their mobility needs; as everybody else does.
An analysis of accident data has revealed that the number of accidents caused
by elderly drivers is, on average and per unit distance driven, actually lower than
other age groups (Dissanayake and Lu [1]), despite reports to the contrary,
which indicate an increase in the accident rates for 50 year olds and over
(Broughton [2], Maycock [15]). It should be noted though that there are
contrasting standpoints in the literature on whether elderly drivers are to be
considered high risk. One side claims that they are not any worse than any other
drivers for the following reasons:
1. in absolute terms older drivers do not represent a high risk group; by
contrast as they recognize their own limitations and slower reactions,
they tend to drive more cautiously and observe the rules of the road
(Hakamies-Blomquist [3]);
2. in spite of their responsible behavior behind the wheel, there is an
increase in the number of road accidents involving injuries to the
elderly: this is to be attributed not, as mistakenly believed, to the higher
accident rate, but to the greater physical fragility of over 65 year olds
who are more likely to sustain injury in the event of an accident (Evans
[4], Broughton [2]);
3. practically no driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs or falling
asleep at the wheel rank very low in accidents caused by elderly people;
similarly, very few older drivers are involved in single vehicle accidents
(Hakamies-Blomquist [3]);
The other side notes that elderly drivers are indeed a high risk group and this
is due to the smaller number of miles driven, chiefly for reasons associated with
their mental and physical faculties. The reasons for this claim can be summed
up as follows:
1. Analysis of age, gender and cohorts, indicated that middle age drivers
are safer than younger drivers who, in turn, are safer than older drivers.
Older male drivers are safer than older female drivers and more recent
cohorts of older drivers are safer than more distant cohorts
(Stamatiadis and Deacon [5]);
2. Elderly drivers are a high risk population because of the type of accidents
that older drivers are usually involved. In fact, side impact crashes are
twice as likely to occur with older drivers rather than younger drivers.
Due to the severity of these types of crashes, it is generally harder for an
older person to recover than a younger driver. (Staplin et al [16], Mitchell
and Stamatiadis [6], Chandraratna et al [7]);
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681
There is a higher incidence of elderly drivers involved in accidents
occurring in more complex and mentally demanding situations, such as
for instance at junctions or slip roads., where the driver has to carry out
several tasks simultaneously (merging into traffic flow, pedestrian
crossings etc.). Recent studies have shown that high risk maneuvers
include merging from a slip road into mainstream traffic, multi-lane
driving and turning across traffic at unsignalized intersections (Fancello
et al [8], Fancello [9], Daigneault et al [10]).
Over the last ten years, a great deal of attention has been focused on driver
perception. Several studies have shown that mental and physical conditions,
driving habits and behavior when performing certain maneuvers differ with age. In
particular, the mental and physical faculties of over 65-year olds as well as their
ability to concentrate behind the wheel deteriorate more rapidly, with the result that
there is a greater likelihood of them having an accident caused by human error
(Fancello et al [8], Hakamies-Blomquist [3], Voorhees [11]). And this is in spite of
the fact that older people often drive “more cautiously” as they have more
experience and are more aware of the potential hazards (Owsley et al [12]). It is for
this reason that research in latter years has focused primarily on identifying active
safety measures to assist older drivers, aimed at facilitating certain tasks and
improving their performance, so as to avoid mishaps on the road. These measures
concern above all restrictions and limits (in relation to certain diseases or visual
impairments), support and assistance (driving classes and refresher courses
covering particular kinds of maneuvers), redesigning the road system (in relation to
the higher risk maneuvers), and in-vehicle driving aids (to be tested during
simulator sessions (Hakamies-Blomquist [3], Parker et al [13], Lee et al [14]).
However, since road infrastructure and driving regulations as well as driving habits
and stereotypes differ from one country to another (Fancello et al [8]), clearly the
safety measures identified are not generally applicable inasmuch as driver behavior
differs precisely in relation to national regulations and driving stereotypes.
In this paper we have analyzed the results of a joint investigation conducted
in two states in two countries, USA (Kentucky) and Italy (Sardinia), which have
distinct difference in regard to roadway aspects and design as well as driving
habits and rules. The objective of the work was to compare the behavior of
elderly drivers in Kentucky and Sardinia and determine whether there are any
differences between these two groups and whether they could be attributed to the
roadway aspects, and driving habits and rules.
Even though the drivers tested here are residents of a specific region within
their respective countries, most of the differences noted in their driving habits
could be considered as indicative of all drivers in each country. These
differences could be attributed to driving habits, roadway environments, vehicle
types, legislation, and traffic enforcement levels. These results could provide a
peek in the differences between drivers in the two countries, Italy and USA, but
generalizations should be avoided and conclusions should be drawn carefully.
The analysis results revealed that drivers behave differently and consequently in
identifying driver support measures we have had to allow for the differences in
driving habits and behavior standards.
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2 Methodology
The data collected were analyzed by means of multiple correspondence analysis
(MCA) and cluster analysis (CA). These two techniques were chosen because: 1)
they are among the best suited for questionnaire analysis; 2) they enable macro
variables to be identified that, by limiting dimensional reduction, well describe
the phenomenon; and 3) they are able to explore correlation among variables and
identify homogeneous behavior based on the type of response (Bouroche et al
[17], Diday et al [18]).
MCA involves dimensionality reduction by introducing factorial axes. An
iterative procedure is used to define the axes (factors) that generate subspaces
striking a good balance between the significance level of the information and the
tolerated error value. The subspaces are defined by determining the factorial
planes onto which the data are to be projected. The significance of the variables
is evaluated by means of the test value (TV) parameter. The greater the absolute
value of the TV the higher the significance is.
In cluster analysis, a hierarchical procedure is used based on the inertia
criterion and the Ward method, whereby homogeneous individuals are classed
into groups determined by evaluating their distances (it’s an Euclidean distance
between clusters or objects when forming the clusters). The different clusters
representing homogeneous behavior, each characterized by TV’s associated to
the most significant variables, are then compared.
The above techniques were applied to both the US and Italian samples.
Comparison of the results made it possible to identify common features and
behavioral differences, including those that are not so evident and well-known.
3
Data analysis
The analysis concerned a total of 235 interviews, 81 conducted on residents in
the Lexington area (KY - USA) and 154 on residents in the city of Cagliari
(Italy). The sample was randomly chosen from among over 65-year olds, in
possession of a valid driver’s license. The first section of the questionnaire
concerned background information, such as age and type of car owned, number
of driving offences over the last few years, use of driver or passenger seatbelts.
The second (medical) section contained questions about health status, the
frequency of medical check-ups, the correct use of medication, corrective lenses.
The other four sections concerned driving behavior when performing specific
maneuvers: namely merging from a ramp, changing lanes, turning left and
driving at night. Figure 1 shows an example of the questions contained in the
questionnaire.
Because of the large number of variables to be handled jointly (95) several
iterations were performed:
•
the first, of a general nature, in which the differences in behavior between
Italian and US drivers were determined, selecting in this case the 32
variables shown in Table 2 with their possible number of answers;
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Figure 1:
Table 1:
683
Example of questions.
Variables considered in overall analysis of the phenomenon.
Variable
Gender
Age
Age drivers license
first issued
Vehicle usage
Driving offences
Annual medical checkups
Eye tests
Description of health
status
Driving under the
influence of prescribed
medication
Use of corrective
lenses for driving
Muscle pains or
fatigue while driving
Merging
Driving on freeways
or non-urban roads
Feel road markings
and signs inadequate
See signs at last
moment
Do not drive at night
Answers
2
4
4
5
Variable
Change lane
Information overload
Feel other motorists are
driving dangerously
Drive at night
Nervous driving at night
3
Poor lighting
6
3
19
5
6
5
6
5
5
5
5
Confused by lane
markings
Alter route due to poor
lighting
Alter route due to poor
road markings
Slow down to read road
signs
Difficulty in turning at
unsigned junction
Turning at junction 64
Judge speed of
oncoming traffic
Alter route to avoid
turning
Difficulty in turning in
daily traffic
Hazardous situation
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Answers
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
3
4
5
5
5
5
684 Urban Transport XIV
•
another four iterations for each of the specific maneuvers merging on a
ramp, multi-lane driving, turning left at an unsignaled intersection and
night driving in which the specific variables of the relative questionnaire
sections were used.
For brevity, the procedure followed for the first iteration is reported here in its
entirety, while for the other four only the final results are described.
4
Results
4.1 Multiple correspondence analysis
Since the results are represented in a matrix with 235 rows (interviews) and 95
columns (questions), multiple correspondence analysis was employed to assist in
understanding the behavior of the respondents. Analysis of the first seven
factorial axes (which indicate the grouping of the drivers based on similarity of
their answers) determined in the MCA, along with the relative eigen values
(Table 3), reveals that there are overall differences between the responses of the
participants in the two countries. For the US respondents, the first five axes
already yield 36.07% explanation of the phenomenon, while all seven axes are
not sufficient to attain the same level of explanation for the Italian respondents.
This means that the US sample exhibits a more homogeneous and stable
behavior than the Italian sample because it attained an explanatory value of
43.12% for the 7 axes.
Table 2:
Seven most significant factorial axes for US and Italian data.
Italy
Axis
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
EigenValue
0.2762
0.1779
0.1399
0.1032
0.0907
0.0840
0.0812
Percent
8.84
5.69
4.48
3.30
2.90
2.69
2.60
USA
Cumulative
Percent
8.84
14.53
19.01
22.31
25.22
27.91
30.50
EigenValue
0.5166
0.3163
0.2297
0.1900
0.1543
0.1464
0.1283
Percent
13.25
8.11
5.89
4.87
3.96
3.75
3.29
Cumulative
Percent
13.25
21.36
27.24
32.12
36.07
39.83
43.12
The next step involved the examination of the contribution values for each
variable in the first five factorial axes. This step identified some significant
factors that differentiate the US and Italian samples. For the Italian data, the first
axis is determined by variables indicating that older drivers in any case prefer to
continue driving even though they change their behavior (demonstrated by
variables such as slow down to read road signs, alter route due to poor lighting
and alter route due to poor road markings). The second axis on the other hand is
defined by variables such as confused by lane markings, nervous driving at
night, difficulty in turning at unsigned junction, and feel other motorists are
driving dangerously, indicating that the elderly admitted experiencing
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difficulties driving. For the US sample on other hand, the variables contributing
to determining the first two axes take the reverse order: the first axis comprising
those variables indicative of the difficulties older people encounter in driving,
the second being defined essentially by variables associated with a change in
driving behavior.
The analysis of the contribution of the variables only provides a quantitative
evaluation of the factorial axis structure and some preliminary indications as to
the differences between the two samples (older US drivers appear to take a more
prudent approach to driving). It does not however provide sufficient information
for making a clear distinction between behavior and actions of the two samples.
This requires an analysis of the information contained in each axis. The first
factorial axis for the US sample is characterized by variables relating to the
situation where no particular driving difficulties are encountered. A clear
distinction can be observed between modalities with “no answer” whose
significance is defined by a TV of 8.52, and those where the behavior is
unconditioned, respondents having ticked “never” to the questions “How often
do you feel nervous driving at night” (TV=3.36), “how often do you alter your
route to avoid turning left at unsignalized intersections?” (TV=3.46), “how often
do you have a difficult time judging speed of opposing traffic when trying to turn
left?” (TV=3.16). Again on the first axis a weaker correlation can be observed
between these variables and cautious driving behavior, such as frequently
slowing down when approaching road signs, (TV=2.02) and feeling other
vehicles are a danger (TV=2.28).
Looking at the second axis, a correlation exists between the modalities
concerning the response “never” to the questions “Do you continue to drive at
night?” (TV=6.75), “how often do you drive on highways or interstates?”
(TV=8.55), and those concerning mental overload of information when
attempting to change lanes (TV=3.23), constant difficulties in turning left
(TV=3.46) and the modalities for use of corrective lenses while driving
(TV=5.19) as well as older drivers in the 76-80 age group (TV=2.54). Lastly, the
third axis shows the relationship between the modalities concerned with
recognizing hazardous situations in urban traffic (TV=-4.31), and difficulties in
making left turns (TV=-2.86).
In summary, the analysis of the sample of older US drivers showed that they,
in general, are careful and cautious behind the wheel, due largely to the fact that
these motorists usually observe the rules of the road and conform to stereotypes
of road safety education. This is also clearly shown for respondents who reported
no particular difficulties when driving, and did not use the car in less than
optimal driving conditions (poor visibility, dark, heavy traffic, etc). The analysis
of the Italian data show for the first axis the modalities “no answer” to the
questions whether drivers had difficulties making out lane markings (TV=11.36), felt nervous driving at night (TV=-10.78), felt lighting was poor (TV=10.20) and altered their route due to poor lighting or to avoid turning left (TV=10.99), to be significant.
The variables for which the respondents indicated “never” also contribute
significantly to determining the first axis. In particular, these deal with questions
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concerning alteration of route due to poor lighting (TV=5.93) or inadequate road
signs or markings (TV=5.33), slowing down to read road signs or markings
(TV=4.88), feeling nervous about driving at night (TV=4.61), and confusion
over lane markings (TV=4.43). Whereas the first axis for the Italian sample is
fairly similar to the US one, the second axis is characterized by the modalities
“occasionally” or “sometimes” associated with the variables such as driving at
night (TV=-6.60), information overload of when changing lanes (TV=-6.42),
nervousness driving at night (TV=-6.23), feeling others are driving dangerously
(TV=-5.76). In the opposite part of the second axis on the other hand, the
modalities regarding no difficulties experienced in turning at intersections
(TV=5.80) in making out lane markings (TV=5.62), or in feeling others drove
dangerously (TV=4.76) were found to be highly significant. This indicates the
self-confidence gained through long experience behind the wheel of the drivers
who responded in this way.
The comparison of the factorial axes for the two samples shows that for the
US drivers, variables relating to more cautious behavior are in any case
associated with variables indicating a less inhibited driving behavior, suggesting,
as already mentioned, that US motorists take a more prudent approach to driving,
recognizing their own limits. By contrast, the Italian data show that the variables
indicating no difficulties in performing certain maneuvers are associated with
other variables that conversely are indicative of episodes of mental overload of
information and difficulties when driving. This demonstrates that Italian drivers
tend to be slightly less responsible and less inhibited by their own limits. The
cluster analysis enabled to recognize type-profiles of the respondents for the
different maneuvers investigated, identifying homogeneous groups partly or
wholly characterized by the most significant variables resulting from the MCA.
4.2 Cluster analysis
Cluster analysis of the questionnaire responses allowed the identification of
homogeneous groups among the respondents: the larger the number of identical
answers, the greater the probability that individuals will belong to the same
group. Several class partitions have been explored and evaluated using the
difference in responses between the representative partition and the described
phenomenon. The final choice falls on the most significant partition that enables
to better identify the different characteristics of the respondents.
The overall analysis of the two samples of interviewees, from Sardinia and
Kentucky, identified three different groups that were common to both samples:
• Group A: Sometimes encountered difficulties driving
• Group B: Occasionally encountered difficulties driving
• Group C: Never encountered difficulties driving
Regarding the US sample, only 20.6% of interviewees reported never having
difficulties driving, against 34.6% who sometimes and 21.3% who occasionally
experienced difficulties. By contrast, older Italian drivers were found to be more
confident, 30.5% of the sample stating they never experienced difficulties
driving, compared to a total of roughly 47% who did (40.9% sometimes and
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6.5% occasionally). Even though the analysis produced fairly similar results for
the two samples, the most significant aspect that emerged from the comparison is
the more prudent approach to driving exhibited by US drivers. They appear to be
more aware of their limitations compared to Italian drivers who, by contrast, are
less apprehensive about getting behind the wheel.
The next step involved the analysis of the single maneuvers, i.e. merging
from a ramp, changing lanes, turning left and night driving. After several
iterations we opted to use just active variables, 10 for the background and
medical information, 11 for merging issues, 8 for lane changes, 5 for left turning
maneuvers and 6 for night driving. The multiple correspondence analysis, not
shown here for the sake of brevity, revealed that the most significant variables
for each maneuver are in fact those characterizing the different ways drivers
behave when performing such maneuvers. The variables are those shown in the
cluster analysis. For all the cases described here, overall significance levels of
the groups range from 85 to 95%.
Comparison of the US and Italian data reveals that drivers behave differently
when merging into mainstream traffic from a ramp. 50.62% of US drivers
accelerate when merging, while group B, representative for its size (19.7%)
represents drivers who do not change their speed when merging. This means that
a high percentage of drivers behaves confidently, maintaining a steady pace, and
does not perceive other drivers as hesitant or dangerous. The groups identified
for the Italian sample on the other hand were observed to behave differently. As
much as 33.77% of the sample braked when merging with mainstream traffic,
while 19.44% continuously changed their speed. This suggests hesitancy and
erratic behavior, posing a hazard to other drivers. Here again Italian drivers were
found to be less confident. The groups used here are:
•
Group A: Merge breaking
•
Group B: Merge without changing speed
•
Group C: Merge changing speed continuously
•
Group D: Merge forcefully
•
Group E: Merge accelerating (US sample only)
•
Group F: Merging slowing down (Italian sample only)
As for changing lanes, in the US sample the largest size group (46.91%) is
represented by respondents who report no problems when changing lanes, while
19.75% wait for the approaching vehicle to pass and then change lanes safely.
As much as 78.67% of the Italian sample waits for the approaching vehicle to
pass, delaying the maneuver, which though associated with more cautious
behavior, in many cases can obstruct the traffic flow. Other examples of Italian
driving behavior included drivers slowing down to wait for approaching
vehicles to pass or even braking or stopping altogether (10.14%), risking
multiple pile-ups. The groups used here were as follows:
•
Group A: Wait for vehicle to pass
•
Group B: Change lane (US sample only)
•
Group C: Remain in lane (US sample only)
•
Group D: Slow down
•
Group E: Brake and then stop (Italian sample only)
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For left turning maneuvers at intersections, two significant groups were
identified for the US sample, with 62.96% of respondents stopping and then
proceeding to make the left turn without any difficulty, while 28.40% slowed
down or quickly crossed the intersection. This behavior can probably be
explained by the fact that the US highway code regulating right of way at
intersections states that the first vehicle to arrive is the first to pass. In Italy
motorists are obliged to give way to traffic from the right, but as the data show,
older drivers do not always observe this rule. In fact the table concerning left
turns shows that only 8.4% of respondents stop and then proceed to turn, 39.5%
accelerate without difficulty and 43.5% stop and then complete the maneuver.
The following groups were used here:
•
Group A: Slow down
•
Group B: Stop and proceed to turn with no difficulties
•
Group C: Accelerate –no difficulties (Italian sample only)
As for night time driving, the major difference between the Italian and US
sample is the large number of Italian drivers who do not drive at night (18.18%),
compared to a negligible number of US drivers. In the latter case the sample was
divided into drivers who never (22.22%) and those who sometimes
(67.8%).encountered difficulties. By contrast the Italian sample was divided up
into two major groups, those who reported never experiencing problems with
night time driving (42.21%) and those who sometimes had problems (35.5%).
For both samples the major difficulties were to be attributed to visibility due to
age-related deterioration in eyesight. The groups used here are the following:
•
Group A: Some difficulties
•
Group B: No difficulties
5
Discussion
Some fundamental points emerged from the analysis presented in the preceding:
•
Overall, Italian and US drivers were found to behave fairly similarly,
though older drivers in the USA tend to have a slightly more prudent
approach to driving than their Italian counterparts. Comparison of the
data show that the groups identified and their relative specific variables
are fairly comparable. Thus this would tend to confirm that the absence of
significant behavioral differences between the samples.
•
The analysis of the specific maneuvers indicated substantial differences in
driving behavior and action taken when performing a specific task
between the tow samples.
•
For the merging from a ramp maneuver, the most significant difference
between the two samples is that older drivers in the USA behave in a
more consistent and self-assured manner, 50% accelerating when merging
and 19.7% merging without changing speed. By contrast, the Italian
drivers were found to be less confident, 33% braking when merging,
19.4% changing speed continuously and 21% proceeding slowly. In terms
of road characteristics, this behavior can be explained by the fact that on
many Italian roads, especially minor roads, no provision is made for
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acceleration lanes for safe merging with the result that in heavy traffic
drivers have to force their way into mainstream traffic. Consequently, if
the driver is unable to accurately judge the speed of vehicles approaching
from behind because of impaired eyesight or mental fatigue, the risk of
collision increases.
•
For the changing lanes maneuver, the differences in behavior displayed
by older drivers in the two countries are clearer. While US drivers
perform well for this type maneuver, the same cannot be said of Italian
drivers. In fact, half of the US drivers reported having no difficulty in
changing lanes whereas 78.6% of Italian drivers stated they waited for the
vehicle approaching from behind to pass before changing lane. This can
be explained by the fact in the USA motorists are allowed to drive
alongside other vehicles on multilane highways and as a result are more
accustomed to changing lanes safely. In Italy, on the other hand, where
this is not allowed, drivers take a more cautious approach, tending in any
case to keep to the right.
•
For the left turn maneuvers, again substantial differences were observed
between the two samples. The most significant difference is that in all
traffic situations US drivers stop before negotiating the left turn, whereas
a large percentage of Italian drivers (almost 40%) accelerate, even if
oncoming vehicles are present, and turn. This difference may be
attributed to the fact that in the USA motorists are obliged to stop before
turning across traffic, while in Italy the give way rule applies. Also,
Italian roads often lack dedicated turning lanes or protection from
vehicles approaching from behind or oncoming traffic.
•
For night driving, older drivers were found to behave fairly similarly in
the two countries, but again US drivers are taking a more prudent
approach compared to their Italian counterparts. In fact, 42.2% of Italian
drivers declared they did not encounter problems driving at night
compared to 22% of US drivers.
In conclusion, driver stereotypes and driving environment understandably
play a major role in assessing driving behavior and the results of the present
analysis demonstrate that the assumption that older drivers generally experience
difficulties when performing complex maneuvers such as turning left across
traffic or on-ramp merging is misconceived. On the contrary, the findings
indicate that the degree of difficulty experienced by older drivers differs
depending on their driving habits and the driving environment.
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690 Urban Transport XIV
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