Study on parameters characteristics of NGM (1,1,k) prediction model with multiplication transformation

The purpose of this paper is to study the properties of the NGM (1,1,k) prediction model with multiplication transformation and reduce its modeling complexity.

The authors improved this model by putting forward a formula to solve its parameters, building an algorithm for optimizing the NGM (1,1,k) model in terms of the least modeling error and designing a key technology for the implementation of this algorithm. The optimized NGM (1,1,k) model is built accordingly. The parameter characteristics of the two models under multiple transformations and its effect of the simulation value and forecasting value are analyzed by studying the properties of multiple transformation of the two models.

The research finding shows that the modeling accuracies of the NGM (1,1,k) model and the optimized NGM (1,1,k) model are all in no relation to multiple transformations.

The above results imply that the data level can be reduced; the process of building the NGM (1,1,k) model and the optimized NGM (1,1,k) model can be simplified; but the simulative and predictive accuracy of the two models remain unchanged.

The paper succeeds in realising the properties of NGM (1,1,k) model and the optimized NGM (1,1,k) model by using the method of multiplication transformation, which is helpful for understanding the modeling mechanism and expanding the application range of the NGM (1,1,k) model.