Are we all overconfident in the long run? Evidence from one million marathon participants

Michal Krawczyk and Maciej Wilamowski

No 2015-01, Working Papers from Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

Abstract: In this project we sought to contribute to extant literature on overconfidence by identifying it in a large, heterogeneous sample making familiar, repeated choices in a natural environment which provides direct feedback. In Study 1 we elicited predictions of own finishing time among participants of the 2012 Warsaw Marathon. Their prediction errors turned out to be very highly correlated with the change in pace over the course of the run. In Study 2 we thus took this change in pace as a proxy for self-confidence and used existing field data of around one million participants. Both studies indicate that males as well as youngest and oldest participants tend to be more confident. In Study 2 we are also able to investigate national and cultural dimensions, confirming previously reported findings of relative overconfidence in Asians and providing some novel results, i.a. that relatively conservative societies tend to be more self-confident.

Keywords: overconfidence; performance forecasts; gender differences; age effects; national culture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C93 D01 Z1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2015
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cbe, nep-cul and nep-exp
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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http://www.wne.uw.edu.pl/inf/wyd/WP/WNE_WP149.pdf First version, 2015 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:war:wpaper:2015-01

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