Tactical Size Rotation in Switzerland

Thorsten Hock

Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), 2010, vol. 146, issue III, 553-576

Abstract: The size premium, defined as the return differential between shares of small and large companies, is subject to cyclical fluctuations. This study examines the predictability of this premium for the Swiss stock market applying a new and flexible forecasting approach. Our strategies provide promising information ratios. The results show that risk variables (VIX, TED spread, etc.), the performance of the S&P 500 and statistical variables such as AR(1) terms or trends prove to be successful forecasting variables in our algorithm. Furthermore, variables that sum up the consensus estimates of equity analysts (IBES) make valuable forecast contributions.

Keywords: Size Effect; Portfolio Mangement; Taktical Asset Allocation; Futures-Overlay (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G10 G11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ses:arsjes:2010-iii-2

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