Peace for our time? Examining the effect of power-sharing on postwar rebellions

Martin Ottmann
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Martin Ottmann: International Development Department, 1724University of Birmingham

Journal of Peace Research, 2020, vol. 57, issue 5, 617-631

Abstract: Does power-sharing promote peace? Relying on credible commitment theory, past research has predominantly focused on one aspect of this question – namely, whether power-sharing prevents the recurrence of battle violence between agreement signatories. However, this disregards a phenomenon that plagues postwar countries across the globe: battle violence perpetrated by armed groups outside of the negotiated settlement against the postwar order. To explain this violence, I argue that we have to focus on how power-sharing redistributes power and access to resources across elites in a postwar country. By determining who gets what, when, and how, power-sharing determines the state’s counterinsurgency capabilities and thus shapes incentives and constrains for extra-agreement battle violence. Personalized power-sharing, for instance, gives elites privileged access to state resources, facilitates effective counterinsurgency strategies, and thus decreases extra-agreement violence. In contrast, structural power-sharing limits elites’ access to resources and their ability to prevent armed challenges resulting in higher levels of violence. To empirically test these propositions, I combine data from the Power-Sharing Event Dataset (PSED) with the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (GED) for peace agreements in Africa and Asia signed between 1989 and 2006. I analyze these data using count models, matching procedures, and correlated random effects models. The empirical results support my expectation that personalized power-sharing is associated with fewer extra-agreement battle-deaths while structural arrangements facilitate postwar rebellions. This study contributes to an improved understanding of power-sharing as a conflict resolution tool and highlights its divergent effects on actors inside and outside of peace agreements.

Keywords: civil war; extra-agreement battle violence; postwar peace; power-sharing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:joupea:v:57:y:2020:i:5:p:617-631

DOI: 10.1177/0022343319883676

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