Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited1

Tobias Böhmelt

Conflict Management and Peace Science, 2013, vol. 30, issue 3, 199-219

Abstract: Previous studies argue that the cumulation of mediations generally decreases uncertainty and ultimately helps to solve a conflict peacefully. Yet the empirical evidence for this is inconclusive, suggesting that existent theoretical accounts might be incomplete. For addressing this shortcoming, the paper develops an argument for a curvilinear relationship between the cumulation of mediations and mediation effectiveness. Based upon this rationale, it is less likely that initial mediation attempts succeed, but—after a turning point has been reached—subsequent mediations are more likely to induce an effective resolution of a dispute. The author also argues that this effect should be stronger if the same actors mediate over the course of a conflict. The empirical implications of this theoretical revision are tested in a quantitative framework employing data for 1816–2001. The results provide strong support for the theory.

Keywords: Cumulative impact; international mediation; mediation effectiveness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sae:compsc:v:30:y:2013:i:3:p:199-219

DOI: 10.1177/0738894213484053

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