Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana

A simple model for the short term forecasting of Italian inflation

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to build a tool for performing forecasting exercises, allowing to obtain a reliable estimate of Italian consumer price inflation. To reach this goal we estimate a simple three-equation model for the short term forecasting of twelve-month percentage variations of the Italian consumer price index. The starting point of the model is the decomposition of the general index in a main component, the so-called core inflation, capturing longer term tendencies and two additional volatile components, those of unprocessed food and energy prices. The idea is that it is exactly core inflation which is possible to explain and forecast with a set of basic economic variables acting as leading indicators.

Keywords: Inflazione; :; Previsioni; e; simulazioni; :; Modelli; di; serie; storiche; :; Costruzione; e; stima; di; modelli; econometrici (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-06
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7714/1/MPRA_paper_7714.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:7714

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().