Зависимость долгосрочного роста ресурсной экономики от начального состояния: сравнение моделей на примере российской нефтедобычи

The dependence of the potential sustainability of a resource economy on the initial state: a comparison of models using the example of Russian oil extraction

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The studies of the International Monetary Fund offer a model for recommending sustainable budget policy to oil-exporting countries including Russia. The model does not contain any resource as a factor of production and assumes that Russian oil reserves will be exhausted by the middle of the 21st century. The current paper examines the sustainability of open and closed models, which are calibrated on Russia's data and include a resource as a factor of production. The open-model case shows that monotonic economic growth is impossible given the current state of the Russian economy. This paper offers an approach for estimating changes that improve long-term sustainability.

Keywords: nonrenewable resource; weak sustainability; open imperfect economy; Russian oil extraction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q32 Q38 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-12-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-env and nep-tra
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Published in The Journal of the New Economic Association 12 (2011): pp. 77-100

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