The role of real and nominal variables in defining business cycles: dynamic properties of a hybrid model - an alternative view

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: The paper provides an alternative view to the Real and New Keynesian business cycle theories. The paper focuses on the combination of both real and nominal variables in explaining the cyclical movements of business cycles. We propose using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) technique on the production function approach in order to empirically assess the relative importance of both real and nominal variables in defining the shape of a business cycle (or output gap). An economy-specific variable (inflation) is introduced in the production function and is used to control the severity, persistence and magnitude of a given real shock. The model employed is tested in four countries namely: United States of America, United Kingdom, Canada and Germany. The results show that indeed real and nominal variables play an important and major role in explaining movements in business fluctuations. The bulk of impulse responses given a real shock to the output gap may also be attributed to movements in nominal variables mainly as a result of inflationary movements. This economy specific parameter conveys the same message that Ragnar Frisch hypothesized in 1933 based on his ‘rocking-horse theory’. The paper thus provides policy makers to identify key choice variables to use when reducing the impact of shocks in a given economy within a specified period of time.

Keywords: Business cycle; Vector autoregression; Impulse and propagation mechanisms; Hodrick-Prescott filter; Production function approach. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E32 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18949/1/MPRA_paper_18949.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:18949

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().