Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector of Punjab

Uzma Hanif, Shabib Haider Syed, Rafique Ahmad and Kauser Abdullah Malik
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Uzma Hanif: Department of Economics, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University), Lahore
Shabib Haider Syed: Department of Economics, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University), Lahore
Rafique Ahmad: Universities of Punjab and Bahawalpur
Kauser Abdullah Malik: Department of Biological Sciences, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University), Lahore

The Pakistan Development Review, 2010, vol. 49, issue 4, 771–798

Abstract: The main objective of the study is quantification of the impact of change in climate normals in order to have a viable and sustained development of the agricultural sector both at the regional and country level. A one-way fixed effect panel model for eleven districts over the time horizon 1970-2009 has been estimated with the FGLS panel regression technique. The results of the panel regression of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, are derived from data of Punjab agricultural land. The inclusion of the Kharif and Rabi seasons climate variables are important components of the assessment model, as these have not been taken into consideration in any previous assessment. The results show that the Kharif and Rabi variables (seasonal variables in the context of the sowing and harvesting time-periods) are significantly related to land price per acre. The study also confirms the general hypothesis that climate change impinges considerably on the price of agricultural land, which is a long-run variable for net revenues.

Date: 2010
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