A Bad Break-up? Assessing the Effects of the 2016 Brexit Referendum on Migration

Joanna Clifton-Sprigg, Ines Homburg, Jonathan James () and Suncica Vujic ()
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Ines Homburg: University of Antwerp
Jonathan James: University of Bath
Suncica Vujic: University of Antwerp

No 16468, IZA Discussion Papers from Institute of Labor Economics (IZA)

Abstract: By voting to leave the European Union (EU) in 2016, the United Kingdom (UK) set off a long period of uncertainty and signalled its support for the Leave campaigns, which centred around restricting migration. This paper researches how this decision affected EU-UK migration patterns. We exploit the Brexit referendum as a natural experiment and employ a (synthetic) difference-in-differences estimator to compare EU migration (treated) to non-EU migration (untreated) in the UK. We find a significant decrease in the inflow of EU migrants, although the reduction seems too small to have any impact on the migrant stock. We further find a significant persistent rise in British citizenship applications and grants. Our results reveal that the referendum made the UK a less attractive destination and that the EU migrants already in the UK were encouraged to obtain British citizenship. The Brexit-induced policy uncertainty was the key driver affecting migrants' decision-making.

Keywords: Brexit referendum; international migration; European Union; uncertainty; anti-immigration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F22 J48 J61 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 83 pages
Date: 2023-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-int, nep-lab, nep-mig and nep-ure
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