Sources of Disagreement in Inflation Forecasts: An International Empirical Investigation

Pierre Siklos

CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University

Abstract: Central to the conduct of monetary policy are inflation forecasts. Inflation forecast are not unique. Central banks and professional organizations generate inflation forecasts while households are surveyed about their inflation outlook. This paper estimates inflation forecast disagreement for nine economies over the 1999-2009 period, five of which target inflation. I find that central bank transparency tends to increase forecast disagreement. To the extent this reflects the attention paid to inflation performance the implication is that transparency is beneficial. Moreover, this finding does not appear to be a feature that applies only to central banks that must adhere to an inflation target.

Keywords: Forecast disagreement; Central bank transparency; Inflation; Quantile regression; Panel regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E52 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 81 pages
Date: 2012-09
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/fil ... 6/42_siklos_2012.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-42

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in CAMA Working Papers from Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Cama Admin ().