Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system
Robert Fenge and
François Peglow
The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 2018, vol. 12, issue C, 61-76
Abstract:
The paper analyses the impact of demographic developments on the German pension system until the year 2060. The projections are simulated for a range of assumptions on the latest demographic trends and on the labour market and comprise the latest pension legislation. As a central innovation, we present a decomposition approach which allows identifying the isolated effects of mortality, fertility and migration developments on the dynamics of the German pension system. We show that the past population structure – driven by past fertility changes – and future mortality improvements will be the most important factors shaping the development of the German pension system. The results have a number of implications for effective and sustainable pension reforms.
Keywords: Population ageing; German pension system; Decomposition of demographic determinants; Pension reforms; Labour market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H55 J11 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X17300130
Related works:
Working Paper: Decomposition of Demographic Effects on the German Pension System (2017)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:joecag:v:12:y:2018:i:c:p:61-76
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.01.001
Access Statistics for this article
The Journal of the Economics of Ageing is currently edited by D.E. Bloom, A. Sousa-Poza and U. Sunde
More articles in The Journal of the Economics of Ageing from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().