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Decomposition of demographic effects on the german pension system

Robert Fenge and François Peglow

The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 2018, vol. 12, issue C, 61-76

Abstract: The paper analyses the impact of demographic developments on the German pension system until the year 2060. The projections are simulated for a range of assumptions on the latest demographic trends and on the labour market and comprise the latest pension legislation. As a central innovation, we present a decomposition approach which allows identifying the isolated effects of mortality, fertility and migration developments on the dynamics of the German pension system. We show that the past population structure – driven by past fertility changes – and future mortality improvements will be the most important factors shaping the development of the German pension system. The results have a number of implications for effective and sustainable pension reforms.

Keywords: Population ageing; German pension system; Decomposition of demographic determinants; Pension reforms; Labour market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H55 J11 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212828X17300130

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Working Paper: Decomposition of Demographic Effects on the German Pension System (2017) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:joecag:v:12:y:2018:i:c:p:61-76

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.01.001

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The Journal of the Economics of Ageing is currently edited by D.E. Bloom, A. Sousa-Poza and U. Sunde

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