A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data
Jonas Dovern
European Economic Review, 2015, vol. 80, issue C, 16-35
Abstract:
This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters and discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation formation. Disagreement varies over time and is positively correlated with general (economic) uncertainty. The degree to which individual forecasters disagree with the average forecast tends to persist over time. Models of heterogeneous expectation formation can be modified by introducing heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios to match this feature. Furthermore, disagreement about correlations of different macroeconomic variables is high on average. In general, multivariate forecast data can be used more effectively than it has been to estimate models with heterogeneous expectations and to test the mechanisms used to generate disagreement in these models.
Keywords: Macroeconomic expectation; Forecast; Imperfect information; Survey data; Disagreement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E27 E37 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (53)
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0014292115001257
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
HTML/Text
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:16-35
DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.08.009
Access Statistics for this article
European Economic Review is currently edited by T.S. Eicher, A. Imrohoroglu, E. Leeper, J. Oechssler and M. Pesendorfer
More articles in European Economic Review from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().