S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China

Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee and Artatrana Ratha ()

China Economic Review, 2010, vol. 21, issue 2, 212-223

Abstract: A newly emerging area in international economics looks at the cross-correlation coefficient between past and future values of the trade balance and movement in the current exchange rate as a way of analyzing the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes. Since the cross-correlation function follows a symmetric pattern, it comes under the heading of the S-Curve. Previous studies have considered the experience of developed and developing countries with the S-Curve, excluding China. In this paper we consider the Chinese experience. We show that when aggregate trade data between China and the U.S. are considered, there is no evidence of the S-Curve. However, when the data are disaggregated by commodity, the S-Curve is supported in almost 50% of the close to 100 industries considered. Furthermore, it appears that commodity types do not have any influence in determining the existence of an S-Curve pattern.

Keywords: S-Curve; Commodity; trade; China; U.S. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chieco:v:21:y:2010:i:2:p:212-223

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