Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate

Volker Wieland

No 3811, CEPR Discussion Papers from C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers

Abstract: Inflation-targeting central banks have only imperfect knowledge about the effect of policy decisions on inflation. An important source of uncertainty is the relationship between inflation and unemployment. This Paper studies the optimal monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate, the short-run inflation-unemployment trade-off and the degree of inflation persistence in a simple macroeconomic model, which incorporates rational learning by the central bank as well as private sector agents. Two conflicting motives drive the optimal policy. In the static version of the model, uncertainty provides a motive for the policymaker to move more cautiously than they would if they knew the true parameters. In the dynamic version, uncertainty also motivates an element of experimentation in policy. I find that the optimal policy that balances the cautionary and activist motives typically exhibits gradualism, that is, it still remains less aggressive than a policy that disregards parameter uncertainty. Exceptions occur when uncertainty is very high and inflation close to target.

Keywords: Monetary policy; Inflation targeting; Parameter uncertainty; Optimal learning; Natural unemployment rate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 D80 E24 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2003-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate (2003)
Working Paper: Monetary policy and uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate (1998)
Working Paper: Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate
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