The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate

Gabriele Fiorentini, Alessandro Galesi, Gabriel Pérez-Quirós () and Enrique Sentana
Additional contact information
Gabriel Pérez-Quirós: Banco de España, https://www.bde.es/bde/es/
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gabriel Perez Quiros

Working Papers from CEMFI

Abstract: We document a rise and fall of the natural interest rate (r*) for several advanced economies, which starts increasing in the 1960’s and peaks around the end of the 1980’s. We reach this conclusion after showing that the Laubach and Williams (2003) model cannot estimate r* accurately when either the IS curve or the Phillips curve is flat. In those empirically relevant situations, a local level specification for the observed interest rate can precisely estimate r*. An estimated Panel ECM suggests that the temporary demographic effect of the young baby-boomers mostly accounts for the rise and fall.

Keywords: Natural rate of interest; Kalman filter; observability; demographics. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E43 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-his, nep-mac and nep-mon
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cemfi.es/ftp/wp/1805.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: The rise and fall of the natural interest rate (2018)
Working Paper: The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate (2018)
Working Paper: The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate (2018)
Working Paper: The Rise and Fall of the Natural Interest Rate (2018)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2018_1805

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from CEMFI Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Araceli Requerey ().