Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents: Evidence from Oil Shocks

Rabah Arezki, Simeon Djankov, Ha Nguyen and Ivan Yotzov

CAGE Online Working Paper Series from Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE)

Abstract: Using a new dataset of 198 national elections across 48 democracies, this paper is the first to systematically examine the effects of oil price shocks on incumbents’ political fortunes in developed oil-importing countries. We find that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents and increase the likelihood of changes in the ideology of the incoming government. These shocks are found to operate through lowering consumption growth.

Keywords: Elections, Incumbent, Oil Prices, Economic Shocks JEL Classification: D72; E21; P16; Q43 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-isf, nep-mac and nep-pol
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/c ... tions/wp572.2021.pdf

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Working Paper: Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents: Evidence from Oil Shocks (2021)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cge:wacage:572

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