Identifying Rates of Emigration in the United States Using Administrative Earnings Records: Working Paper 2009-01

No 20516, Working Papers from Congressional Budget Office

Abstract: Sound assessment of the impact of immigration on the economy and public policies requires accurate measurement of both inflows and outflows of migrants. This paper undertakes a new strategy to estimate emigration rates among U.S. immigrants by inferring the probability of emigration using longitudinal administrative earnings data from 1978 through 2003. Two groups of emigrants are evaluated separately: those who emigrate from the United States and those who leave both the United States and the Social Security system. The method used here finds that between 1.0 percent and 1

Date: 2009-03-18
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