HIV/AIDS and Cross‐National Convergence in Life ExpectancyPopulation and Development Review, 2004, vol. 30, issue 4, 727-742 Abstract: This article analyzes the effect of HIV/AIDS on the cross‐national convergence in life expectancy as well as infant and child survival rates by comparing three scenarios. One is based on historical and future best‐guess estimated values given the existence of the epidemic. The second scenario assumes that the effect of the epidemic is much worse than expected. The final scenario is based on hypothetical values derived from estimations where the mortality caused by the epidemic is removed. For life expectancy, convergence becomes stalled in the late 1980s (without weighting by country population size) or 1990s (with weighting). Convergence in infant and child survival rates does not become stalled, but slows down. These results are mainly attributable to the epidemic since all signs of stalled convergence or even divergence disappear in the “No AIDS scenario.” Given the existence of the epidemic, however, the reduced degree of inequality in life expectancy attained by 1985 is only expected to be achieved again by 2015 at the earliest. If the epidemic turns out much worse than expected, divergence could continue to 2050. No divergence is to be expected in infant and child survival rates in any of the scenarios. Date: 2004 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:popdev:v:30:y:2004:i:4:p:727-742 Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from Access Statistics for this article Population and Development Review is currently edited by Paul Demeny and Geoffrey McNicoll More articles in Population and Development Review from The Population Council, Inc. |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.