FORECASTING CRUDE OIL PRICE MOVEMENTS WITH OIL-SENSITIVE STOCKS

Economic Inquiry, 2014, vol. 52, issue 2, 830-844

Abstract: type="main" xml:lang="en">

This paper uses monthly data from 1984:M10 to 2012:M8 to show that oil-sensitive stock price indices, particularly those in the energy sector, have strong power in predicting nominal and real crude oil prices at short horizons (1-month-ahead predictions), using both in- and out-of-sample tests. In particular, the forecasts based on oil-sensitive stock price indices are able to outperform significantly the no-change forecasts. For example, using the NYSE Arca (AMEX) oil index as a predictor, the 1-month-ahead forecasts for nominal crude oil prices reduce the mean squared prediction error by between 22% (for the West Texas Intermediate oil price) and 28% (for the Dubai oil price). Moreover, we find that the directional forecast based on the AMEX oil index is significantly better than a 50:50 coin toss. The novelty of this analysis is that it proposes a new and valuable predictor that both reflects timely market information and is readily available for forecasting the spot oil price.(JEL G17, Q43, Q47, C53)

Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (38)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecin.12053 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
Working Paper: Forecasting Crude Oil Price Movements with Oil-Sensitive Stocks (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:52:y:2014:i:2:p:830-844

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
https://ordering.onl ... s.aspx?ref=1465-7295

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Inquiry is currently edited by Tim Salmon

More articles in Economic Inquiry from Western Economic Association International Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Wiley Content Delivery ().