Un modello dei conti economici per il sistema bancario italiano

Luca Casolaro () and Leonardo Gambacorta
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Luca Casolaro: Banca d'Italia

No 519, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: This paper analyzes the linkages between banks� profitability and the main real and financial indicators. The results, derived by means of a reduced-form model for the period 1984-2002, highlight a strict relation between all income and cost components and the evolution of the economic cycle. Net interest income shows a high correlation with nominal GDP and the interest rate term structure; income from services and trading are also influenced by the trend and volatility of stock and financial markets. Operating expenses depend on wage dynamics and changes in a bank�s organizational structure. Simulations performed for the period 2001-02 show a good predictive power of the model.

Keywords: redditivit� bancaria; ciclo economico; modello econometrico (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 G21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fin and nep-fmk
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_519_04

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