A supply-side GDP nowcasting model

Economic Bulletin, 2023, issue 2023/Q1, No 18

Abstract: Rationale The recent shocks to the Spanish economy, linked to both COVID-19 and rising energy prices, have had an uneven impact across sectors of activity, underscoring the importance of monitoring the supply side of economic activity. Takeaways •This article presents a model for forecasting quarterly GDP using a combination of monthly indicators to estimate the growth of gross value added for each sector of activity. •The results in terms of forecasting accuracy evidence the usefulness of a sectoral approach, as a complementary tool for monitoring economic activity in the short term.

Keywords: Economic cycle; growth; time series; forecasts; sectors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:journl:y:2023:i:01:n:18

DOI: 10.53479/29778

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