Is There an Alternative to Export-led Growth for Thailand?

Chaipat Poonpatpibul, Nutthikarn Vorasangasil, Manatchai Junetrakool and Punjaphut Prasitdechsakul
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Chaipat Poonpatpibul: Bank of Thailand
Nutthikarn Vorasangasil: Bank of Thailand
Manatchai Junetrakool: Bank of Thailand
Punjaphut Prasitdechsakul: Bank of Thailand

No 2009-02, Working Papers from Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand

Abstract: To answer the question of whether there is an alternative to exportled growth in Thailand, this study investigates the importance of exports to the Thai economy followed by the assessment about the potential of domestic demand to replace exports as the main engine for economic growth. It is found that the export sector has been the significant provider of income for the economy and the most important engine of growth since 1997. Due to the small domestic market, domestic demand would not be able to replace exports as the superior engine in the medium and long term Besides, the Thai economy will still need to depend on the export sector for investment, employment and particularly productivity improvement. However, strengthening domestic demand would be crucial for the economy as 1) it would need to perform the important role as a buffer against negative foreign demand shocks and 2) there is the need to expand domestic demand especially investment to help ensure economic recovery as well as achieve sustainable long term growth.

Pages: 97 pages
Date: 2009-02
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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