Efficient Modeling and Forecasting of the Electricity Spot Price

Florian Ziel, Rick Steinert and Sven Husmann

Abstract: The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices of the European Power Exchange (EPEX) which incorporates specific features like renewable energy. The model consists of several sophisticated and established approaches and can be regarded as a periodic VAR-TARCH with wind power, solar power, and load as influences on the time series. It is able to map the distinct and well-known features of electricity prices in Germany. An efficient iteratively reweighted lasso approach is used for the estimation. Moreover, it is shown that several existing models are outperformed by the procedure developed in this paper.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm, nep-ene and nep-for
Date: 2014-02, Revised 2014-10
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Published in Energy Economics, 47 (2015) 98-111

Downloads: (external link)
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1402.7027 Latest version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:arx:papers:1402.7027

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Papers from arXiv.org
Series data maintained by arXiv administrators ().