The Election Day that Lasted 84 Days: Mapping the Electoral Geography of the 2019 Istanbul Metropolitan Mayoral Race

Sinan Tankut Gülhan
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Sinan Tankut Gülhan: Gaziantep University

No ufvtz, SocArXiv from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The Istanbul metropolitan mayoral election in 2019 provided a suitable way to study the subtle and apparent shifts in the Turkish political landscape. For the first time in recent history, opposition gained ground in this main commercial and population hub. So far, Istanbul local politics were treated from an aspatial perspective. Here, we employ spatial econometrics to understand the subtle groundswell in Istanbul’s political geography. This paper maps the electoral change that took place in the 84 days between two elections using 31 thousand ballot data based on 782 districts in Istanbul. In addition to the change in voting patterns we also employ two different datasets to better situate the change of public opinion. The first database is the socioeconomic status indexing of Istanbul’s districts. The second database comes from the author’s own work employing python-based datamining the online database of for sale properties in Istanbul on the verge of the 2019 election. An OLS regression analysis and a spatial-lag regression is applied on the datasets. The results are contrary to the political punditry and points to a newly emerging middle-class coalition.

Date: 2022-04-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-pol and nep-ure
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:socarx:ufvtz

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/ufvtz

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