A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified

Joshua Benjamin Miller and Adam Sanjurjo
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Joshua Benjamin Miller: The University of Melbourne

No pj79r, OSF Preprints from Center for Open Science

Abstract: The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications in economics and finance. We develop a novel empirical strategy to correct for several fundamental limitations in the canonical study and replications, conduct an improved field experiment to test for the hot hand in its original domain (basketball shooting), and gather all extant controlled shooting data. We find strong evidence of hot hand shooting in every dataset, including on the individual level. Also, in a novel study of beliefs, we find that expert observers can predict (out-of-sample) which shooters are hotter.

Date: 2018-10-30
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-evo, nep-exp and nep-neu
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:osf:osfxxx:pj79r

DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/pj79r

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