A Small Global Forecasting Model

David Rae and David Turner

No 286, OECD Economics Department Working Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: This paper describes the OECD’s new small global forecasting model for the three main OECD economic regions: the United States, the euro area, and Japan. The key variables – which include output, inflation, the trade balance, and import prices – are driven by monetary and fiscal policy, exchange rates, and world demand. The projections from the model are used as a starting point to help animate the early stages of the OECD’s forecasting round. The model is essentially a demand-side model with a particular focus on the impact of global linkages and the transmission of influences between regions ... Ce document décrit le nouveau petit modèle global de prévision pour les trois principales régions de l'OCDE : les États-Unis, la zone euro et le Japon. Les variables-clés, qui incluent la production, l'inflation, la balance commerciale et les prix d'importation, sont déterminées par la politique fiscale et monétaire, les taux de change et la demande mondiale. Les prévisions du modèle sont utilisées comme un point de depart pour stimuler la dicusssion lors des premières étapes de l'exercice de prévision de l'OCDE. Ce modèle est essentiellement un modèle de demande qui se concentre particulièrement sur l'impact des liens globaux et sur la transmission des influences entre regions ...

Keywords: forecasting; international; macroeconomic model; OECD (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E17 F42 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-02-08
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:286-en

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