Lead generation is a major hurdle in small-molecule drug discovery, with an estimated 60% of projects failing from lack of lead matter or difficulty in optimizing leads for drug-like properties. It would be valuable to identify these less-druggable targets before incurring substantial expenditure and effort. Here we show that a model-based approach using basic biophysical principles yields good prediction of druggability based solely on the crystal structure of the target binding site. We quantitatively estimate the maximal affinity achievable by a drug-like molecule, and we show that these calculated values correlate with drug discovery outcomes. We experimentally test two predictions using high-throughput screening of a diverse compound collection. The collective results highlight the utility of our approach as well as strategies for tackling difficult targets.