Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]

skip to main content
10.5555/3015574.3015640guideproceedingsArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagesConference Proceedingsacm-pubtype
research-article
Free access

Innovative simulation for scenario analysis and operational planning

Published: 24 July 2016 Publication History

Abstract

This paper highlights how Modeling and Simulation could support efficiently the decision making over operational planning. An innovative architecture for quick response in complex scenario analysis is proposed as integration among new models and M&S methodologies. This architecture, based on combination of MS2G (Modeling, Interoperable Simulation and Serious Games), Intelligent Agents (IA) and Smart Planning methodologies, is designed to support operations in military and civil operations (dual use). The authors focus their attention on the context of OPP (Operational Planning Processes) for disaster relief and emergency management by introducing an example of architectural solution, using new generation simulators, able to create quickly a complex scenario for experimental analysis over different COAs (Course Of Action).

References

[1]
Amram O. (2009) "A web - based model to support triage location allocation in mass casualty situations"
[2]
Balci, O. (1998). Verification, Validation and Testing. in Handbook of Simulation: Principles, Advances, Applications & Practice (pp. 335--393) Wiley and Sons
[3]
Bellamy, A. J., & Williams, P. D. (2011). The new politics of protection? Côte d'Ivoire, Libya and the responsibility to protect. International Affairs, 87(4)
[4]
Benson M, Koenig KL, Schultz CH. (1996) "Disaster triage: START, then SAVE-a new method of dynamic triage for victims of a catastrophic earthquake", Prehospital Disaster Med, Apr-Jun, 11(2): 117--24
[5]
Bieder, C., P. Le-Bot, E. Desmares, J-L Bonnet, F. Cara (1998) "MERMOS: EDF's New Advanced HRA Method," in Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM 4),A. Mosleh and R.A. Bari (editors), Springer-Verlag, New York
[6]
Brauch, H. (2003). Urbanization and Natural Disasters in the Mediterranean: Population Growth and Climate Change in the 21st Century. Building Safer Cities, 149
[7]
Bruzzone A.G., Massei M., Longo F., Nicoletti L., Di Matteo R., Maglione G., Agresta M. (2015) "Intelligent Agents & Interoperable Simulation for Strategic Decision Making On Multicoalition Joint Operations", Prof. of I3M2015, Bergeggi, Italy
[8]
Bruzzone A.G., Massei M., Agresta M., Tremori A., Longo F., Murino G., De Felice F., Petrillo A.(2015) "Human Behavior Simulation for Smart Decision Making in Emergency Prevention and Mitigation within Urban and Industrial Environments", Proceedings of I3M2015, Bergeggi, Italy
[9]
Bruzzone A.G., Massei M., Tremori A., Longo F., Nicoletti L., Poggi S., Bartolucci C., Picco E., Poggio G. (2014) "MS2G: simulation as a service for data mining and crowd sourcing in vulnerability reduction", Proceedings of WAMS, Istanbul, September
[10]
Bruzzone A.G, M. Frascio, F. Longo, A. Chiurco, S. Zanoni, L. Zavanella, P. Fadda, G. Fancello, D. Falcone, F. De Felice, A. Petrillo, P. Carotenuto (2014) "Disaster and emergency management simulation in industrial plants" Proc. of the European Modeling and Simulation Symposium, September 10--12, Bordeaux, France
[11]
Bruzzone, A. G. (2013) "Intelligent agent-based simulation for supporting operational planning in country reconstruction", International Journal of Simulation and Process Modelling, 8(2--3), 145--159.
[12]
Bruzzone A.G., Sokolowski J. (2012) "Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), Refugees & Immigrants as Agents and Models for Simulation Scenarios", Proceedings of 7th NATO CAX Forum, Rome, Italy
[13]
Bruzzone A.G., Massei M., Longo F. Madeo F. (2011). "Modeling and Simulation as Support for Decisions Makers in Petrochemical Logistics. In: Summer Computer Simulation Conference. The Hague, Netherlands, June 28--30, p. 200--203
[14]
Bruzzone A.G., Massei M., Tarone F., Madeo F. (2011) "Integrating Intelligent Agents & AHP in a Complex System Simulation", Proceedings of the international Symposium on the AHP, Sorrento, Italy, June
[15]
Bruzzone A.G., Massei M., (2010) "Intelligent Agents for Modeling Country Reconstruction Operation", Proceedings of Africa MS 2010, Gaborone, Botswana, September 6--8, 2010.
[16]
Bruzzone A.G., Cantice G., Morabito G., Mursia A., Sebastiani M., Tremori A. (2009) "CGF for NATO NEC C2 Maturity Model (N2C2M2) Evaluation", Proceedings of I/ITSEC2009, Orlando, November 30-December 4
[17]
Bruzzone A.G., Tremori A., Massei M. (2008)"HLA and Human Behavior Models", Proceedings of MMS2008, Ottawa, Canada, April 14 -- 17
[18]
Bruzzone, A. G. (2002). Simulation based VV&A methodology for HLA federations. Proceedings of Annual Simulation Symposium (pp. 80--85)
[19]
Bruzzone, A., & Saetta, S. (2002). LESNEX: LEan Simulation Network of Excellence. In HMS2002 and MAS2002 International workshops,(Bergeggi, SV, Italy, October 3--5).
[20]
Burton, I. (1997). Vulnerability and adaptive response in the context of climate and climate change. Climatic Change, 36(1--2), 185--196.
[21]
Chen C. (2010) "A Novel Emergency Vehicle Dispatching System" in : Vehicular Technology Conference (VTC Spring), IEEE 77th
[22]
Dastidar, A.G. et. al., (2005) "Evaluation of Dust and Hybrid Mixture Explosion Potential in Process Plants", Process Safety Progress. Vol. 24, No. 4, December
[23]
Fenton, Norman, Neil, Martin E. (2007). "Managing Risk in the Modern World: Applications of Bayesian Networks", Knowledge Transfer Report from the London Mathematical Society and the Knowledge Transfer Network for Industrial Mathematics, London, UK
[24]
Frydman C., Longo F., Mekouar K. (2009) "European Modeling and Simulation Symposium Vol.2", La Laguna University Press, ISBN 978-84-692-5415-8
[25]
Gencer E.A., (2013) "Natural Disasters, Urban Vulnerability, and Risk Management: A Theoretical Overview, The Interplay between Urban Development, Vulnerability, and Risk Management", Springer Briefs in Environment, Security, Development & Peace Volume 7, 7--43
[26]
GOL (2012) "Foresight Reducing Risks of Future Disasters: Priorities for Decision Makers" Final Project Report. The Government Office for Science, London.
[27]
Hallegatte, S. (2008). An Adaptive Regional Input-Output Model and its Application to the Assessment of the Economic Cost of Katrina. Risk analysis, 28(3), 779--799.
[28]
Higgins S.D. (1987) "Emergency delivery: prehospital care, emergency department delivery, perimortem salvage", Emergency medicine Clinics of North America, Vol. 5, N.3, August, pp 539--540
[29]
Hinrichs R., Jones L., Stanely E.M., Kleiner M. (2011) "Report on the 2010 Chilean Earthquake and Tsunami Response", Open File Report 2011--1053 1.1. US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey
[30]
Hofmann, M. (2013). Simulation-based exploratory data generation and analysis (data farming): a critical reflection on its validity and methodology. The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, 10(4), 381--393.
[31]
Jezek B., Vanek J., Antos K. (2012) "Visualization Methods in Emergency Medical Services Readiness Evaluation" Advances in Visualization, Imaging and Simulation
[32]
Kahn, M. E. (2005). The death toll from natural disasters: the role of income, geography, and institutions. Review of economics and statistics, 87(2), 271--284.
[33]
Kleijnen, J. P. C. (2007). Design and Analysis of Simulation Experiments (International Series in Operations Research & Management Science).
[34]
Kracke, R., Hauge, J.B., Duin, H., (2006). "Training of strategic decisions in collaborative networks through serious games," Network-Centric Collaboration and Supporting Frameworks Book Series, Springer publications, Berlin (Germany), International Federation for Information Processing, Vol.224, pp. 305--312.
[35]
Kuhl, F., Weatherly, R., Dahmann, J., 1999. Creating Computer Simulation Systems: An Introduction to the High Level Architecture. Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, USA
[36]
Lin Y., Batta R., Rogersona P., Blatta A., Flanigana M. (2009) "A logistics model for delivery of critical items in a disaster relief operation: heuristic approach" Socio-Economic Planning Sciences Vol. 45 132--145
[37]
Longo F., Tuncer Ören, (2008) Supply chain vulnerability and resilience: a state of the art overview, Proc. of European Modeling & Simulation Symposium, Campora S. Giovanni (CS) Italy
[38]
McLeod, J. (1999). Simulation as a Possible Tool for Peace. Simulation, 72(5), 348--352.
[39]
Mitchell, J. K. (1999). Crucibles of hazard: mega-cities and disasters in transition, Tokyo: United Nations University Press.
[40]
Montgomery, D. C. (2008). Design and analysis of experiments. John Wiley & Sons, NYC
[41]
Moraitis P., Spanoudakis N. (2007) "Argumentation-based agent interaction in an ambient-intelligence context", IEEE Intelligent Systems, Vol.22, Issue 6, pp.84--93, November
[42]
Moramarco, T., Melone, F., & Singh, V. (2005). Assessment of flooding in urbanized ungauged basins: a case study in the Upper Tiber area, Italy. Hydrological Processes, 19(10), 1909--1924
[43]
Mustapha K., Mcheick H., Mellouli S.," Modeling and Simulation Agent-based of Natural Disaster Complex Systems", Proc. of Computer Science, Vol. 21, 2013, Pages 148--155, ISSN 1877--0509.
[44]
Oren, T.I., Numrich, S.K., Uhrmacher, A.M., Wilson, L.F., Gelenbe, E. (2000) "Agent-directed simulation challenges to meet defense and civilian requirements", Proc.of Wintersim, Orlando, FL, Decdember 10--13, pp.1757--1762
[45]
Pearl, Judea (1988). "Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems", Morgan Kaufmann, Burlington, MA
[46]
Price M. (2013) "Sardinia hit by deadly Cyclone Cleopatra and floods", BBC News, November 19, www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-24996292
[47]
Rauner Marion S. (2012). "Resource planning for ambulance services in mass casualty incidents: a DES-based policy model" Health Care Manag Sci 15 254--269
[48]
Raybourn, E.M. 2012. Beyond serious games: Transmedia for more effective training & education, Proc. DHSS2012, Rome, Italy
[49]
Shi J. (2008) "Agent-based evacuation model of large public buildings under fire conditions " Automation in Construction 18 338--347
[50]
Sudworth, J. (2015) "China explosions: What we know about what happened in Tianjin", BBC News, August 17, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-33844084
[51]
Taboada M., Cabrera E., Iglesias M. L., Epelde F., Luque E. (2011) "An Agent-Based Decision Support System for Hospitals Emergency Departments" Procedia Computer Science 4 1870--1879
[52]
Telford, B. (2012). Marine Corps Verification, VV&A Best Practices Guide.
[53]
United Nations Human Settlements Program (UN-Habitat) (2011) "Global report on human settlements: cities and climate change". Earthscan, London
[54]
Van Aalst, M. K. (2006). The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters. Disasters, 30(1), 5--18
[55]
Vuorio, U.M., and J.K. Vaurio (1987) "Advanced Human Reliability Analysis Methodology and Applications," In: Proceedings of PSA '87: Probabilistic Safety Assessment International Meeting, Zurich, Switzerland, August 3 -- September 4, pp.104--109
[56]
Wooldrige M., N.R. Jennings (1995)," Intelligent Agents: Theory and Practice World Risk Report (2014) United States University
[57]
Wybo J.L., Therrien M.C. and Guarnieri F. (1996) "The International Emergency Management and Engineering Conference", Montreal, Canada, May 28--31
[58]
Xinhua (2010) "Floods, landslides leave 3,185 dead in China this year", News, news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010-08/31/c_13471818.htm
[59]
Zhang, Nevin Lianwen; Poole, David (May 1994). "A simple approach to Bayesian network computations", Proceedings of the Tenth Biennial Canadian Artificial Intelligence Conference (AI-94), Banff, Alberta, pp. 171--

Index Terms

  1. Innovative simulation for scenario analysis and operational planning

    Recommendations

    Comments

    Please enable JavaScript to view thecomments powered by Disqus.

    Information & Contributors

    Information

    Published In

    cover image Guide Proceedings
    SCSC '16: Proceedings of the Summer Computer Simulation Conference
    July 2016
    489 pages
    ISBN:9781510824249

    Publisher

    Society for Computer Simulation International

    San Diego, CA, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 24 July 2016

    Author Tags

    1. HLA
    2. MS2G
    3. emergency management
    4. intelligent agents
    5. interoperable simulation
    6. modeling and simulation
    7. operational planning processes

    Qualifiers

    • Research-article

    Contributors

    Other Metrics

    Bibliometrics & Citations

    Bibliometrics

    Article Metrics

    • 0
      Total Citations
    • 118
      Total Downloads
    • Downloads (Last 12 months)56
    • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)12
    Reflects downloads up to 13 Feb 2025

    Other Metrics

    Citations

    View Options

    View options

    PDF

    View or Download as a PDF file.

    PDF

    eReader

    View online with eReader.

    eReader

    Login options

    Figures

    Tables

    Media

    Share

    Share

    Share this Publication link

    Share on social media