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Doubts about the model and optimal policy. (2023). Karantounias, Anastasios.
In: School of Economics Discussion Papers.
RePEc:sur:surrec:0423.

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  26. Caveats and caution. We want to draw here some caution on the results of the small-doubts expansion. The optimal plan with model uncertainty is driven by the state variables (˜ ξt, Λt), which summarize the history gt . In the full-confidence economy these state variables are constant, so this type of perturbation is singular in the terminology of Holmes (1996). Moreover, the state variables, which are martingales, become random walks in the expansion, as seen in lemmata 1 and 2. So, in a sense, we approximate a non-stationary economy by using information from the stationary counterpart at σ = (0, 0). We are not worried so much about the persistence indicated by the random walk result; this is expected, given the martingale nature of the state variables.14 More worrisome is the fact that some variables, like the tax rate, will surpass 100% after a sufficiently long time.
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  34. Doubts about the model and optimal policy Anastasios G. Karantounias1 April 2, 2023 Online Appendix (not for publication) Keywords: Model uncertainty; ambiguity aversion; robustness; multiplier preferences; optimal policy design; managing expectations. JEL classification: D80;E52; E61;E62; H21; H63. 1
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  66. The Lucas and Stokey (1983) plan is easy to calculate because it is essentially static. This is due to its history-independence property for variables like consumption, labor and the tax rate, xt(gt , 0, 0) = x(gt, 0, 0).13 The expansion is focused on the calculation of the partial derivatives xi t(0), i = R, A, which are random variables in most cases. Substantial simplification comes from the fact that, without doubts about the model, the conditional and unconditional likelihood ratios become unity, m∗ t (0) = n∗ t (0) = M∗ t (0) = N∗ t (0) = Λt(0) = 1. Furthermore, there is no room for price manipulation through continuation utilities, so ˜ ξt(0) = 0, and the government’s and household’s utility coincide, Wt(0) = Vt(0), since both the government and the household share the same reference model.
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  68. X i=0 rx,i + ˜ ξiux,i Λi . (B.26) The interesting feature of the ‘NK’ case is that the sign of the multiplier ψ̃t depends now on the details of the application.11 Therefore, the amplification or mitigation of beliefs depends both on the sign of the multipliers and on the correlation of x with shocks. Signing the derivatives rx and ux may not be necessarily straightforward. For example, if we had a New-Keynesian model, rx can be positive or negative depending on where inflation is relative to the target and this may be changing over time depending on the history of shocks st−1 .12 10 The formula for the optimal tax rate in proposition 1 is derived effectively by expressing (B.24) in terms of the policy instrument for the case of r = u. 11 Note that depending on the application, the return functions can be the same or different. For example, in Benigno and Paciello (2014) the firm is owned by the household, leading to a setup where r = u is natural.
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