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Reconstruction of the Spanish Money Supply, 1492-1810. (2021). Palma, Nuno ; Chen, Yao ; Ward, Felix.
In: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers.
RePEc:tin:wpaper:20210033.

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  1. Understanding Money Using Historical Evidence. (2024). Velde, Francois ; Palma, Nuno ; Brzezinski, Adam.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedhwp:98103.

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  2. Spending a Windfall. (2023). Silva, Andre C ; Palma, Nuno.
    In: Economics Discussion Paper Series.
    RePEc:man:sespap:2305.

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  3. American Treasure and the Decline of Spain. (2022). Palma, Nuno ; Charotti, Carlos J ; Dos, Joo Pereira.
    In: Economics Discussion Paper Series.
    RePEc:man:sespap:2201.

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  4. Reconstruction of the Spanish money supply, 1492–1810. (2021). Palma, Nuno ; Ward, Felix ; Chen, Yao.
    In: Explorations in Economic History.
    RePEc:eee:exehis:v:81:y:2021:i:c:s001449832100019x.

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  1. (2018) based on traces of antique lead pollution that are recognizable in Greenland ice cores today. However, the depreciation rate of 1/360 has been criticized as too low, because it only reflects the wear and tear of coins in normal times (Chevalier, 1847, pp. 68-69).
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  2. Allen, Robert C. 2001. The great divergence in European wages and prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War. Explorations in Economic History 38(4): 411–447.

  3. Among the first group are Jacob (1831) and Velde and Weber (2000b). Jacob puts the initial European stock at 33,674,256 pound sterling (3,749 tonnes of silver equivalent). He arrives at this quantity based on a Roman money stock figure put forth by Sueton for the time of Vespasian’s reign. This figure is then depreciated at an annual rate of 1/360 up to the early 9th century, at which point the resumption of European precious metal 6 In particular, the Spanish money supply estimate incorporates parts of the following quantities according to Spain’s European GDP share: the non-Spanish European precious metal production, the non-Spanish European precious metal arrivals, and transport losses. production is assumed to exactly offset any further depreciation up to the early modern period. The timing of these assumptions has been broadly confirmed by McConnell et al.
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  4. At Sombrerete, none of the silver was produced using amalgamation. In Peru, although the official production data shows a decline starting in the 1640s, mercury consumption was stable. Thus, Brading and Cross (1972) argue that actual Peruvian production did not peak until 1680. At the most fertile Peruvian mines in Potosi, production was taxed at more than twice the rate levied on other mines.
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  5. At the beginning of our sample (up to 1555), where TePaske only provides decadal averages, we draw on Jara (1966) for annual production data. Figure A.1: American precious metal production unregistered production into account. There is a substantial deviation between these two series from the mid 17th century to the early 18th century.
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  10. Before that, the official and unofficial data sources are in agreement. After the early 18th century, the official and unofficial data sources converge again (see García-Baquero, 1996, for a detailed comparison).
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  22. Brzezinski, Adam, Yao Chen, Nuno Palma, and Felix Ward. 2019. The vagaries of the sea: evidence on the real effects of money from maritime disasters in the Spanish Empire. CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP14089.

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  27. Chen, Yao, Nuno Palma, and Felix Ward. 2021. Data and Code for: Reconstruction of the Spanish Money Supply, 1492-1810. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 2021-05-04. https://doi.org/10.3886/E139761V2.
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  38. de Vries, Jan. 2003. Connecting Europe and Asia: a quantitative analysis of the Cape-route trade, 1497-1795. In Global Connections and Monetary History, 1470-1800, edited by ane Richard von Glahn, Dennis O. Flynn, and Artúro Giraldez. Ashgate.
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  44. Europeanin/out t = EU MEU t , (B.2) where EU denotes Spain’s average share of European GDP over the period 1492 to 1810. We need to make some Spain-specific adjustments to the intermediary stock measure, f M
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  45. Finally, panel D displays the decomposition results for the period of reflation, 1751 to 1810. During this period prices rose by almost 200%. Partly this is accounted for by a 42% increase in the money supply. Rising velocity, however, plays a larger role. It explains 49% of the reflation. Accelerating GDP growth towards the end of the early modern period counteracted the dual inflationary pressures arising from a rising money supply and a resurging velocity.
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  46. Finally, the use of Spain’s share of European GDP in the money supply estimate is associated with two types of uncertainty. First, there is data uncertainty about the exact value of Spain’s European GDP share in the early modern period. The data by Bolt et al. (2018) imply an average share of 15%. However, shares vary between 13% and 17.5% depending on time period and underlying source. The stochastic simulation reflects this uncertainty by adding a uniformly distributed error term from the +/-2.5% range to Spain’s 15% average GDP share.
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  59. Given that some of the sources that Humboldt used to construct his production series are unknown today, it is worth considering a second piece of evidence about the quantity of unregistered precious metal production: the amount of American precious metals that was arriving in Europe. This data was regularly published in contemporary Dutch gazettes that have been unearthed by Morineau (1985). In the 17th century, the European arrival data at times exceeds the official American production data, suggesting a considerable amount of unregistered production took place in America. Morineau’s arrival data and Humboldt’s production data reinforce each other in this regard (Barrett, 1990). We therefore adjust the official production data from TePaske for unregistered production.
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  68. In sum, the literature provides various estimates of initial precious metal stocks around 1500. Our preferred estimates are the production-based ones. Although they require heroic assumptions, their methodological basis is in principle sound. The productionbased estimates receives additional support from two sides: First, the revised initial stock springing from the real money stock assumption of Gallatin (1830) falls within the range spanned by the two production-based estimates. Second, the production-based estimates furthermore align with the stock estimates proposed by King (1696) and Hume (1752) – the two earliest authorities on the matter.
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  81. Loss associated with the ship “El Salvador” corrected to 240,000 pesos; correction confirmed with the author. Where sources refer to officially registered silver transports only, we add an estimate of the smuggled silver as follows: 30% for the 16th century (average from Morineau, 1985, p.242), 67% for the 17th century from Mangas (1989, p.316) or Morineau (1985, p.242), and 46% for the 18th century (including the years up to 1810) from Morineau (1985, p.375). Silver/peso conversion rates: 1 peso = 25.561 grams (1492-1727), 24.809 grams (1728-1785), 24.245 grams (1786-1810). A.6. Outflows This section gives an overview of the Spanish outflow data. Table A.6 shows Spanish money outflows as a fraction of inflows from Spanish America – the Spanish outflow rate. Figure A.5 displays the linearly interpolated series together with the individual observations from Attman and Walton.
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  105. Next, there exists a secondary literature on precious metal stock estimates for Europe at the eve of the early modern period. Del Mar (1877b, p.40) states a value of 167 million USD, which is a USD-translation of Jacob (1831) at a USD-pound sterling exchange rate of 4.96 (see Del Mar, 1877a, pp.71ff.).7 Glassman and Redish (1985) average the initial stock estimates by King (1696) and Del Mar (1877b) to initialize their European stock. By construction, their estimate thus lies within our preferred initial stock range. The initial European stock value used by Morineau (1985, p.571) – 60 million pound sterling/15,000 7 Note that translating the Del Mar USD value back into silver weights at either the USD’s peso parity, or using the USD gold price together with the gold-silver ratio can result in somewhat higher stock values.
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  109. Nogues-Marco, Pilar. 2011. The microeconomics of bullionism: Arbitrage, smuggling and silver outflows in Spain in the early 18th century. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Working Papers in Economic History, WP 11-05.
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  110. Outflows We combine the European inflow data with European outflow data from Attman (1986) and de Vries (2003). In particular, we use Attman’s estimates for precious metal flows across the Baltic and Levant, and de Vries’ revision of direct flows to East Asia via the Cape route. This outflow data consists of 25-year averages. It is thus available at a higher frequency than the Spanish outflow data that we use for the baseline estimate. Money stock Based on the initial European stock and the European in- and outflow data we calculate the European precious metal stock, MEU t , according to equation 1. We then calculate an intermediary measure for the Spanish money supply according to Spain’s share of European GDP: f M
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  111. Palma, Nuno. 2018. Reconstruction of money supply over the long run: the case of England, 1270-1870. The Economic History Review 71(2): 373–392.

  112. Palma, Nuno. 2019. American precious metals and their consequences for early modern Europe. In Handbook of the History of Money and Currency, edited by Battilossi, Stefano, Youssef Cassis, and Yago Kazuhiko. Springer.

  113. Palma, Nuno. 2019. American precious metals and their consequences for early modern Europe. In Handbook of the History of Money and Currency, edited by Battilossi, Stefano, Youssef Cassis, and Yago Kazuhiko. Springer.
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  114. Palma, Nuno. 2021. The real effects of monetary expansions: evidence from a large-scale historical experiment. The Review of Economic Studies forthcoming.

  115. Pamuk, Şevket. 2001. The price revolution in the Ottoman empire reconsidered. International Journal of Middle East Studies 33(1): 69–89.
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  116. Panel C shows that declining velocity played an important role in the ensuing deflation between 1651 and 1750. It accounts for 40% of the price decline. GDP growth of around 40% also took pressure off prices. As a consequence, a 55% increase in money supply did not translate into inflation during this period. The decomposition result for the post1650 deflation is thus consistent with a velocity-based explanation (Goldstone, 1991).
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  117. Patterson, Clair C. 1972. Silver stocks and losses in ancient and medieval times. The Economic History Review 25(2): 205–235.

  118. Patterson, Clair C. 1972. Silver stocks and losses in ancient and medieval times. The Economic History Review 25(2): 205–235.
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  119. Pérez Sindreu, Francisco de Paula. 2016. La casa de moneda de Sevilla, su historia. Universidad de Sevilla.
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  120. Peterson, Mendel. 1975. The funnel of gold. Little, Brown, & Company.
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  121. Phillips, Carla Rahn. 1990. The growth and composition of trade in the Iberian empires, 14501750.
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  122. Phillips, Carla Rahn. 2007. The treasure of the San José: Death at sea in the War of the Spanish Succession. JHU Press.
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  123. Potter, John Stauffer. 1972. The treasure diver’s guide. New York: Doubleday.
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  124. Potter, John Stauffer. 1972. The treasure diver’s guide. New York: Doubleday.
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  125. precious metal inflows with inflows as reported by the Dutch gazettes (Morineau, 1985). In contrast to the production data, these series include Spanish inflows from Spanish America only; Portuguese gold inflows from America are not contained. Officially registered Spanish inflows come from Hamilton (1934), Fuentes (1980), and García-Baquero (1996), who rely on the official documentation from the Casa de Contratación and individual ship registers. As is the case with the production data, official inflows fall short of Morineau’s unofficial arrival data from the middle of the 17th century onwards, up to the early 18th century.
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  126. Private treasure flows were taxed upon arrival in Spain and thus there existed an incentive for smuggling. The data collected by Mangas (1989, p.316) and Morineau (1985, pp.242 and 375) suggests that, on average, smuggling amounted to 30% of registered shipments in the 16th century, 67% in the 17th century, and 47% in the 18th century. The standard deviation in the smuggling rate amounts to 7 percentage points (based on 27 observations for the 17th century from Mangas (1989)). We therefore multiply the smuggling rate for each transportation loss with a normally distributed scalar that is centered around 1 and has a standard deviation of 7%. We draw this scalar independently for each loss event.
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  127. Putley, Julian. 2000. The virgins’ treasure isle. Virgin Island Books.
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  128. Reassuringly, the European in/out based estimate, as well as the Asian absorption estimate are very similar to the baseline estimate. The largest discrepancy occurs in the 18th century, where the Spanish outflow data suggests a hemorrhaging of Spanish silver that is not captured by the two alternative estimates. Unsurprisingly, the two alternative estimates also miss the Spain-specific increase in money outflows during the Dutch War of Independence and the War of Spanish Succession. The following sections describe the construction of the European in/out and Asian absorption estimates in greater detail. 12 Irigoin (2009, p.207) provides an overview of references in this regard. 13 The 33% absorption rate scenario starts with the upper bound initial precious metal value, whereas the 66% absorption rate starts with the lower bound initial value.
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  129. Ridgway, Robert H. 1929. Summarized data of gold production. U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Paper 6.
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  130. Sandz, Victoria, and Robert F. Marx. 2001. Encyclopedia of Western Atlantic shipwrecks and sunken treasure. London: McFarland.
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  131. Sargent, Thomas J., and François R. Velde. 2002. The big problem of small change. Princeton University Press.
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  132. Schurz, William Lytle. 1939. The Manila Galleon, volume 40. Historical Conservation Society.
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  133. Schurz, William Lytle. 1939. The Manila Galleon, volume 40. Historical Conservation Society.
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  134. Sedgwick, Romney. 1970. The History of Parliament: The House of Commons, 1715-1754. Published for the History of Parliament Trust, by Oxford University Press.
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  135. Soetbeer, Adolf. 1879. Edelmetall-Produktion und Werthverhältniss zwischen Gold and Silber seit der Entdeckung Amerika’s bis zur Gegenwart. Justus Perthes.
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  136. Soetbeer, Adolf. 1879. Edelmetall-Produktion und Werthverhältniss zwischen Gold and Silber seit der Entdeckung Amerika’s bis zur Gegenwart. Justus Perthes.
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  137. Spooner, Frank C. 1972. The international economy and monetary movements in France, 14391725, volume 138 of Harvard Economic Studies. Harvard University Press.
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  138. Stengers, Jean. 2004. De la créance accordée aux chiffres sans valeur. Revue belge de Philologie et d’Histoire 82(1): 215–227.
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  139. TePaske, John J. 2010. A New World of Gold and Silver. Brill.
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  140. TePaske, John J. 2010. A New World of Gold and Silver. Brill. Tortella, Gabriel. n.d. El circulante metálico en España a finales del siglo XVIII: Primeras aplicaciones de esta estimación para el cálculo de la renta nacional. Unpublished manuscript.
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  141. The clandestine nature of much of the Pacific transfer adds to the uncertainty about the exact quantities involved. However, researchers have attempted to work around this constraint in various ways. The contents of some shipments were revealed after they were captured by privateers. For example, the “Nuestra Señora de Covadonga” alone, captured by Commodore George Anson in 1743, turned out to carry around 1.5 million pesos; two to three such Pacific shipments per year were not uncommon. For the 17th century, Chuan (1969) arrives at an estimate of around 2 million pesos per year based on the value of silk that was shipped from China to Manila in expectation of the arriving Spanish silver. This and similarly ingenious use of source material, has led to the accumulation of quantitative data on early modern Pacific flows.
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  142. The estimate by Gallatin (1830) uses a value of American precious metal inflows of 800 million USD until 1596 and a 3.5-fold increase in goods prices, P, to derive a 1492 precious metal stock, M1492, for Europe of around 300 million USD (evaluated in 1830 USD). While Gallatin does not explicitly state how he deducts the latter from the former, his writing suggests that he assumes the real money stock, M/P, to be constant: M1492 P1492 =
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  143. The European outflow series compiled by Morineau (1985) neglects precious metal flows across the Baltic, and thus is systematically too low (Attman, 1986, p.75).
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  144. The uncertainty surrounding the rate at which the European precious metal production and African arrivals were minted is reflected in a uniformly distributed error term that ranges from-15 to +15 percentage points. This large variance is warranted because the mid-point estimates by Jacob (1831) and King (1696) are at best educated guesses. Thus, for the period from 1492 to 1687 the share of unminted metals is equally likely to be any number between 5% and 35%. For 1688 to 1779 the range is 24% to 54%, and from 1780 onwards it is 52% to 82%.
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  145. This 1% depreciation rate is endorsed by Patterson (1972) as a plausible catch-all rate of depreciation. Velde and Weber arrive at a global stock of 6,897 tonnes of silver equivalent in 1492.
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  146. This explains the discrepancy between the silver weight translations of the values by Del Mar and Jacob that can be found in the literature (Glassman and Redish, 1985).
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  147. This fraction is an average based on observations by Barrett (1990) and Walton (1994).
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  148. This neglects, among others, transportation losses and lost hoards. When these are taken into account, money stocks depreciated at a faster rate (MacCulloch, 1855 [1846], p.1054).
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  149. To account for unregistered precious metal production we add 16.8% to the production series by TePaske – the adjustment factor calculated by Humboldt (1811). From the mid17th century to the early 18th century the share of unregistered production was higher, reaching up to 50% (TePaske, 2010, pp.311ff.). We thus use a 50% adjustment factor for the period 1640-1720.10 From 1720, up to the late 18th century we switch back to 10 During this period, the reduced supply of mercury to Mexican amalgamators facilitated an increase in illicit production. More refining was done using smelting, which made it easier to hide the exact amount of silver production from the fiscal authority. Brading and Cross (1972) note that due to the shortage of mercury just under half of Zacatecas’s silver was produced using smelting in the years 16851705.
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  150. To reflect the uncertainty in precious metal outflows from Europe we randomly draw an error scalar from a normal distribution whose standard deviation reflects the dispersion seen in the literature. Our baseline series for European outflows uses data from Attman (1986) and de Vries (2003). In particular, we use Attman’s estimates for precious metal flows across the Baltic and Levant, and de Vries’ revision of direct flows to East Asia via the Cape route. Barrett (1990) has also compiled a European outflow series.5 Barrett’s series is very similar to the series proposed by de Vries and Attman up to the mid 18th 4 We take 10,000 draws from the joint distribution of input variables. This is sufficient to ensure that the resulting money stock distribution has converged. Draws are independent across input variables. A stochastic simulation that incorporates additional covariance across input variables is discussed in Appendix C.2. 5
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  151. To the Spanish outflow rate, we add a normally distributed error term with a 5 percentage point standard deviation. This captures the large uncertainty surrounding the Spanish outflow data. More concretely, the standard deviation of the difference between our baseline outflow rate series (Figure A.5) and the individual outflow observations provided by Walton (1994) and Attman (1986) is 4.7 percentage points. The available data is laid out in section A.6. The error term is drawn independently for each observation, i.e. each of the constituent sub-periods displayed in Table A.6. The calculation of interpolated values then proceeds based on the current set of random draws for each sub-period. Transportation loss data are subject to uncertainty because of unregistered shipments.
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  152. Together these sites accounted for more than 40% of total official American silver production. The higher unregistered silver production for the second half of the 17th century also squares well with an increase in unregistered silver shipments to Spain during this period (Mangas, 1989, p.316). Both were symptoms of a general weakening of imperial fiscal control (TePaske, 2010, pp.311). Figure A.3: Official Spanish inflows versus gazette reports (decade averages) Notes: Black lines: officially registered inflows. Gray diamonds: Spanish American inflows reported in Dutch gazettes.
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  153. tonnes – is a curiosity: First, it is based on a French translation of Hume (1752), but, as has been pointed out by Stengers (2004), the value of 60 million pound sterling is not contained in Hume’s original work. It has been introduced by a loose French translation. Second, equating 60 million pound sterling into 15,000 tonnes of silver equivalent implies an inexplicable conversion rate of 250 grams of silver per pound sterling. For these reasons it is hard to justify the 15,000 tonne figure.
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  154. Tortella, Gabriel, J. García Ruiz, and José Luis García Ruiz. 2013. Spanish money and banking: A history. Springer.
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  155. Tutino, John. 2017. The Mexican heartland: How communities shaped capitalism, a nation, and world history, 1500-2000. Princeton University Press.
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  156. Tutino, John. 2018. Mexico City, 1808: Power, sovereignty, and silver in an age of war and revolution. University of New Mexico Press.
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  157. Velde, François R. 2013. On the evolution of specie: Circulation and weight loss in 18th and 19th century coinage. Revue numismatique 170: 605–650.

  158. Velde, François R., and Warren E. Weber. 2000b. A model of bimetallism. Journal of Political Economy 108(6): 1210–1234.
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  159. Velde, François R., and Warren E. Weber. 2000b. A model of bimetallism. Journal of Political Economy 108(6): 1210–1234.

  160. Venema, Janny. 2010. Kiliaen van Rensselaer (1586-1643) Designing a New World. Uitgeverij Verloren.
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  161. Walton, Timothy R. 1994. The Spanish treasure fleets. Pineapple Press Inc.
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  162. Walton, Timothy R. 1994. The Spanish treasure fleets. Pineapple Press Inc.
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  163. We reflect uncertainty about the depreciation rate of money due to the wear and tear by a uniform distribution with limits set according to the 0.2% to 0.28% range described by Mayhew (1974). Our estimate of the American retention rate up to 1780 is 14.5%.
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  164. While copper money existed before and after this period, its role was much diminished outside of the early 17th century (Velde and Weber, 2000a).
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  165. While official “permiso”-values suggest Pacific flows only amounted to a modest fraction of American production, actually shipped amounts routinely exceeded the “permiso” many times over (Chuan, 1969; Flynn and Giraldez, 1995).
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  166. With regard to the European precious metal production the estimates by Soetbeer (1879) have been taken over by much of the subsequent literature (Ridgway, 1929; Merrill, 1930; Velde and Weber, 2000b). Only the pre-1600 data has been substantially revised upwards by Nef (1941). However, this lack in variance in the literature cannot be interpreted as the absence of uncertainty about European production figures. We therefore multiply the European production data with an error scalar that has a standard deviation of 10% and a mean of 1. The error scalar is drawn independently for each 20-year period observation by Soetbeer and Nef. We follow the same approach for the African precious metal inflows by Morineau (1985).
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