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Long-baseline neutrino oscillation physics potential of the DUNE experiment - Abi, B. et al - arXiv:2006.16043FERMILAB-PUB-20-251-E-LBNF-ND-PIP2-SCDPUB-20-251-E-LBNF-ND-PIP2-SCD
 
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Neutrino fluxes at the \dword{fd} for neutrino-enhanced, FHC, beam running (top) and antineutrino, RHC, beam running (bottom).
Neutrino fluxes at the \dword{fd} for neutrino-enhanced, FHC, beam running (top) and antineutrino, RHC, beam running (bottom).
Neutrino fluxes at the \dword{fd} for neutrino-enhanced, FHC, beam running (top) and antineutrino, RHC, beam running (bottom).
Neutrino fluxes at the \dword{fd} for neutrino-enhanced, FHC, beam running (top) and antineutrino, RHC, beam running (bottom).
Ratio of \dword{nd} and \dword{fd} fluxes show for the muon neutrino component of the \dword{fhc} flux and the muon antineutrino component of the \dword{rhc} flux (top) and uncertainties on the \dword{fhc} muon neutrino ratio (bottom).
Ratio of \dword{nd} and \dword{fd} fluxes show for the muon neutrino component of the \dword{fhc} flux and the muon antineutrino component of the \dword{rhc} flux (top) and uncertainties on the \dword{fhc} muon neutrino ratio (bottom).
Ratio of \dword{nd} and \dword{fd} fluxes show for the muon neutrino component of the \dword{fhc} flux and the muon antineutrino component of the \dword{rhc} flux (top) and uncertainties on the \dword{fhc} muon neutrino ratio (bottom).
Ratio of \dword{nd} and \dword{fd} fluxes show for the muon neutrino component of the \dword{fhc} flux and the muon antineutrino component of the \dword{rhc} flux (top) and uncertainties on the \dword{fhc} muon neutrino ratio (bottom).
Select flux principal components are compared to specific underlying uncertainties from the hadron production and beam focusing models. Note that while these are shown as positive shifts, the absolute sign is arbitrary.
Select flux principal components are compared to specific underlying uncertainties from the hadron production and beam focusing models. Note that while these are shown as positive shifts, the absolute sign is arbitrary.
Top: LAr+MPD acceptance for $\nu_{\mu}$ \dword{cc} events as a function of muon transverse and longitudinal momentum. Bottom: Acceptance as a function of hadronic energy; the black line is for the full Fiducial Volume (FV) while the red line is for a $1 \times 1 \times 1$~m$^{3}$ volume in the center, where the acceptance is higher due to the better hadron containment. The blue curve shows the expected distribution of true hadronic energy in the \dword{dune} \dword{nd} flux normalized to unity; 56\% of events have hadronic energy below 1 GeV where the acceptance is high.
Top: LAr+MPD acceptance for $\nu_{\mu}$ \dword{cc} events as a function of muon transverse and longitudinal momentum. Bottom: Acceptance as a function of hadronic energy; the black line is for the full Fiducial Volume (FV) while the red line is for a $1 \times 1 \times 1$~m$^{3}$ volume in the center, where the acceptance is higher due to the better hadron containment. The blue curve shows the expected distribution of true hadronic energy in the \dword{dune} \dword{nd} flux normalized to unity; 56\% of events have hadronic energy below 1 GeV where the acceptance is high.
Top: LAr+MPD acceptance for $\nu_{\mu}$ \dword{cc} events as a function of muon transverse and longitudinal momentum. Bottom: Acceptance as a function of hadronic energy; the black line is for the full Fiducial Volume (FV) while the red line is for a $1 \times 1 \times 1$~m$^{3}$ volume in the center, where the acceptance is higher due to the better hadron containment. The blue curve shows the expected distribution of true hadronic energy in the \dword{dune} \dword{nd} flux normalized to unity; 56\% of events have hadronic energy below 1 GeV where the acceptance is high.
Top: LAr+MPD acceptance for $\nu_{\mu}$ \dword{cc} events as a function of muon transverse and longitudinal momentum. Bottom: Acceptance as a function of hadronic energy; the black line is for the full Fiducial Volume (FV) while the red line is for a $1 \times 1 \times 1$~m$^{3}$ volume in the center, where the acceptance is higher due to the better hadron containment. The blue curve shows the expected distribution of true hadronic energy in the \dword{dune} \dword{nd} flux normalized to unity; 56\% of events have hadronic energy below 1 GeV where the acceptance is high.
\dword{nd} samples in both \dword{fhc} (blue) and \dword{rhc} (red), shown in the reconstructed neutrino energy and reconstructed inelasticity binning used in the analysis, shown for a 7 year staged exposure, with an equal split between \dword{fhc} and \dword{rhc}. Backgrounds are also shown (dashed lines), which are dominated by \dword{nc} events, although there is some contribution from wrong-sign \numu background events in \dword{rhc}.
\dword{nd} samples in both \dword{fhc} (blue) and \dword{rhc} (red), shown in the reconstructed neutrino energy and reconstructed inelasticity binning used in the analysis, shown for a 7 year staged exposure, with an equal split between \dword{fhc} and \dword{rhc}. Backgrounds are also shown (dashed lines), which are dominated by \dword{nc} events, although there is some contribution from wrong-sign \numu background events in \dword{rhc}.
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\nue and \anue appearance spectra: reconstructed energy distribution of selected \nue \dword{cc}-like events assuming 3.5 years (staged) running in the neutrino-beam mode (top) and antineutrino-beam mode (bottom), for a total of seven years (staged) exposure. Statistical uncertainties are shown on the datapoints. The plots assume normal mass ordering and include curves for $\mdeltacp = -\pi/2, 0$, and $\pi/2$.
\nue and \anue appearance spectra: reconstructed energy distribution of selected \nue \dword{cc}-like events assuming 3.5 years (staged) running in the neutrino-beam mode (top) and antineutrino-beam mode (bottom), for a total of seven years (staged) exposure. Statistical uncertainties are shown on the datapoints. The plots assume normal mass ordering and include curves for $\mdeltacp = -\pi/2, 0$, and $\pi/2$.
\nue and \anue appearance spectra: reconstructed energy distribution of selected \nue \dword{cc}-like events assuming 3.5 years (staged) running in the neutrino-beam mode (top) and antineutrino-beam mode (bottom), for a total of seven years (staged) exposure. Statistical uncertainties are shown on the datapoints. The plots assume normal mass ordering and include curves for $\mdeltacp = -\pi/2, 0$, and $\pi/2$.
\nue and \anue appearance spectra: reconstructed energy distribution of selected \nue \dword{cc}-like events assuming 3.5 years (staged) running in the neutrino-beam mode (top) and antineutrino-beam mode (bottom), for a total of seven years (staged) exposure. Statistical uncertainties are shown on the datapoints. The plots assume normal mass ordering and include curves for $\mdeltacp = -\pi/2, 0$, and $\pi/2$.
\numu and \anumu disappearance spectra: reconstructed energy distribution of selected $\nu_{\mu}$ \dword{cc}-like events assuming 3.5 years (staged) running in the neutrino-beam mode (top) and antineutrino-beam mode (bottom), for a total of seven years (staged) exposure. Statistical uncertainties are shown on the datapoints. The plots assume normal mass ordering.
\numu and \anumu disappearance spectra: reconstructed energy distribution of selected $\nu_{\mu}$ \dword{cc}-like events assuming 3.5 years (staged) running in the neutrino-beam mode (top) and antineutrino-beam mode (bottom), for a total of seven years (staged) exposure. Statistical uncertainties are shown on the datapoints. The plots assume normal mass ordering.
\numu and \anumu disappearance spectra: reconstructed energy distribution of selected $\nu_{\mu}$ \dword{cc}-like events assuming 3.5 years (staged) running in the neutrino-beam mode (top) and antineutrino-beam mode (bottom), for a total of seven years (staged) exposure. Statistical uncertainties are shown on the datapoints. The plots assume normal mass ordering.
\numu and \anumu disappearance spectra: reconstructed energy distribution of selected $\nu_{\mu}$ \dword{cc}-like events assuming 3.5 years (staged) running in the neutrino-beam mode (top) and antineutrino-beam mode (bottom), for a total of seven years (staged) exposure. Statistical uncertainties are shown on the datapoints. The plots assume normal mass ordering.
The ratio of post-fit to pre-fit uncertainties for various systematic parameters for a 15-year staged exposure. The red band shows the constraint from the \dword{fd} only in 15 years, while the green shows the \dword{nd}+\dword{fd} constraints.
The ratio of post-fit to pre-fit uncertainties for various systematic parameters for a 15-year staged exposure. The red band shows the constraint from the \dword{fd} only in 15 years, while the green shows the \dword{nd}+\dword{fd} constraints. Flux parameters are named ``Flux \#$i$'' representing the $i$th principal flux component, cross-section parameter names are given in Section~\ref{sec:nuint}, and detector systematics are described in Section~\ref{sec:syst}, where the $p_{0}$, $p_1$ and $p_2$ parameters are described in Table~\ref{tab:EscaleSysts}.
The ratio of post-fit to pre-fit uncertainties for various systematic parameters for a 15-year staged exposure. The red band shows the constraint from the \dword{fd} only in 15 years, while the green shows the \dword{nd}+\dword{fd} constraints. Flux parameters are named ``Flux \#$i$'' representing the $i$th principal flux component, cross-section parameter names are given in Section~\ref{sec:nuint}, and detector systematics are described in Section~\ref{sec:syst}, where the $p_{0}$, $p_1$ and $p_2$ parameters are described in Table~\ref{tab:EscaleSysts}.
\numu (top) and \nue (bottom) \dword{fd} FHC spectra for a 15 year staged exposure with oscillation parameters set to the \dword{nufit} best-fit point, shown as a function of reconstructed neutrino energy. The statistical uncertainty on the total rate is shown on the data points, and the pre- and post-fit systematic uncertainties are shown as shaded bands. The post-fit uncertainty includes the effect of the \dword{nd} samples in the fit, and corresponds to the parameter constraints shown in Figure~\ref{fig:postfit_unc_ndfd}.
\numu (top) and \nue (bottom) \dword{fd} FHC spectra for a 15 year staged exposure with oscillation parameters set to the \dword{nufit} best-fit point, shown as a function of reconstructed neutrino energy. The statistical uncertainty on the total rate is shown on the data points, and the pre- and post-fit systematic uncertainties are shown as shaded bands. The post-fit uncertainty includes the effect of the \dword{nd} samples in the fit, and corresponds to the parameter constraints shown in Figure~\ref{fig:postfit_unc_ndfd}.
\numu (top) and \nue (bottom) \dword{fd} FHC spectra for a 15 year staged exposure with oscillation parameters set to the \dword{nufit} best-fit point, shown as a function of reconstructed neutrino energy. The statistical uncertainty on the total rate is shown on the data points, and the pre- and post-fit systematic uncertainties are shown as shaded bands. The post-fit uncertainty includes the effect of the \dword{nd} samples in the fit, and corresponds to the parameter constraints shown in Figure~\ref{fig:postfit_unc_ndfd}.
\numu (top) and \nue (bottom) \dword{fd} FHC spectra for a 15 year staged exposure with oscillation parameters set to the \dword{nufit} best-fit point, shown as a function of reconstructed neutrino energy. The statistical uncertainty on the total rate is shown on the data points, and the pre- and post-fit systematic uncertainties are shown as shaded bands. The post-fit uncertainty includes the effect of the \dword{nd} samples in the fit, and corresponds to the parameter constraints shown in Figure~\ref{fig:postfit_unc_ndfd}.
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Resolution in degrees for the DUNE measurement of \deltacp, as a function of the true value of \deltacp, for seven (blue), ten (orange), and fifteen (green) years of exposure. The width of the band shows the impact of applying an external constraint on $\theta_{13}$.
Resolution in degrees for the DUNE measurement of \deltacp, as a function of the true value of \deltacp, for seven (blue), ten (orange), and fifteen (green) years of exposure. The width of the band shows the impact of applying an external constraint on $\theta_{13}$.
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